Ricky Rothstein
November 2, 2016

Jessie Vargas vs. Manny Pacquiao Betting Odds and Predictions

Legendary fighter Manny Pacquiao briefly retired earlier this year, but most were hard pressed to believe it was permanent because that’s just how the fight game works. Pacquiao returns to the ring on Saturday night to fight Jessie Vargas for Vargas’ WBO welterweight title. The fight should begin around 11:30 p.m. ET from Las Vegas and is shown on pay-per-view with Pacquiao a big favourite on Sports Interaction boxing odds.

Jessie Vargas vs. Manny Pacquiao
Records: Vargas (27-1, 10 KOs), Pacquiao (58-6-2, 38 KOs)
Division: Welterweight
Boxing odds: Vargas +421, Pacquiao -675, draw +2700

Manny Pacquiao

Pacquiao is the only eight-division world titleholder in boxing history. He last fought in April in a third matchup against rival Timothy Bradley Jr. Pacquiao had suffered a huge upset to Bradley in 2012 but it was a very controversial split decision where most thought Pacquiao had won. In 2014, Pacquiao beat the American by unanimous decision. Then, April’s fight wasn’t very close with Pacquiao knocking down Bradley twice and winning 116-110 on tall three judges’ cards to claim the WBO international welterweight title, Pacquiao’s third time winning that belt.

The 37-year-old Pacquiao had announced that April’s fight would be his last before retirement as he is a politician in his native Philippines. He had spent two terms as a member of the country’s house of representatives and in May was elected to the senate in the Philippines. He hasn’t been able to train full-time while balancing his senate duties, so he’s been training early in the morning, handling legislative duties all day and then training again in the evening. This date for the fight was chosen because it’s during a senate recess.

So why come out of retirement? For one, that’s just what boxers do. Pacquiao also admitted there were financial reasons. But most believe that he wants another shot at the “retired” Floyd Mayweather Jr. The unbeaten Mayweather beat Pacquiao by unanimous decision for three world titles in May 2015 in one of the most hyped — but boring — fights ever. It was revealed afterward that Pacquiao had been fighting with a torn rotator cuff against Mayweather, who has given no indication he plans to come out of retirement. But another mega-money fight likely would lure “Money” Mayweather back to the ring to try and become the first boxer to be 50-0. Mayweather Promotions already has filed for two trademarks related to the number 50. If Pacquiao is upset on Saturday, he likely heads back to retirement because he won’t be a major draw any longer.

Jessie Vargas

Vargas is a 27-year-old American who won the vacated WBO world welterweight title with a ninth-round knockout of then-undefeated Sadam Ali in March. Vargas was a solid betting underdog in that bout and his stoppage of Ali having ended a streak of 11 straight Vargas fights that went the distance.

The fight before that, in June 2015, Vargas lost to Bradley by unanimous decision. That bout ended in a very strange fashion. Vargas thought he had a chance to knock out a wobbly Bradley late in the final round, but the referee heard the clapper signaling 10 seconds left in the round as the final bell and stopped the fight with seven seconds remaining. Vargas thought the ref had called the fight for him and jumped on the ropes to celebrate. It did look as if Bradley was on his last legs at the time.

From a tale-of-the-tape standpoint, Vargas has all the advantages in youth, a nearly 5-inch height advantage (he is 5-foot-10) and four-inch reach advantage. He also has been knocked down just once. But clearly Pacquiao has the better track record with several wins over current and future Hall of Famers. It also should be noted that Vargas was chosen carefully.

There was originally talk that Pacquiao was going to fight junior welterweight champion Terence Crawford, but Vargas was picked because he was thought of as a safer opponent. Pacquiao’s trainer, Freddie Roach, has flat-out said that. Vargas is using that as motivation. It won’t matter as Pacquiao will win by decision and set his sights on Mayweather.