Jake Paul vs. Tyron Woodley II: Betting Odds and Prediction
Paul defeated Woodley by a somewhat controversial split decision in August, so a win for the former UFC star will almost certainly set up a trilogy fight next year.
The rules for this fight are the same as the first bout. It’s an eight-round fight at 192 pounds under the cruiserweight division. For reference, that’s about 20 pounds heavier than Woodley fought at in the UFC. The big question will be, how do these fighters adjust now that they know each other’s strengths, and maybe more importantly, their weaknesses?
Paul is a -194 favourite to win on the boxing odds, while Woodley is a +154 underdog. A draw is +1500.
Jake Paul Boxing Odds
Paul (4-0, 3 KOs) is fighting professionally for the fifth time. This fight was actually intended to set Paul up against 7-0 Tommy Fury, the brother of hevyweight champion Tyson Fury, until the younger Fury was forced to pull out because of medical issues. The Woodley rematch was a late substitution.
The numbers for Paul’s early career record are impressive, but you have to consider the fact that he has carefully cherrypicked opponents that play to his strengths. He takes low risk fights that allow him to hone his skill and technique. Paul’s first three fights ended in knockouts, but his opponents left a lot to be desired. First, he earned a first-round TKO win over fellow YouTuber Ali Eson Gib, then he knocked out former NBA point guard Nate Robinson in two rounds.
“The Problem Child’s” last two fights came against former UFC stars. Paul took on Ben Askren, picking up a first-round TKO win in what many fans and critics essentially called a sham fight to supply Paul with a win over a legitimate fighter and make a quick payday for Askren.
In the first fight against Woodley, the judges scored it 78-74/77-75/75-77 in a split decision win for Paul. Woodley even admitted the YouTuber had a higher punch count and harder punching power. Those numbers make sense based off Paul’s four-inch height advantage, two-inch reach advantage and heavier weight. He’s developed a sharp, strong, jab and his technique has improved every fight. I hate to say it, but Paul could have the upper-hand in this fight.
Tyron Woodley Boxing Odds
Woodley (0-1 boxing record, 19-7 MMA) did enough in the first fight for at least one judge to score him the winner, which must be encouraging considering his background is in wrestling, not boxing. His main advantage in this fight is that Paul has been training for a different opponent, while Woodley has been exclusively training for a rematch.
Expect “The Chosen One” to be more comfortable in this fight as he has had a chance to adjust to the heavier boxing gloves. Woodley proved he has the power to rattle Paul when a strong left hand in the fourth round sent the YouTuber into the ropes in the last fight. It looked like Woodley had a chance to end the fight there, but afterwards he reportedly said a sore shoulder had limited him. With time to heal, that shouldn’t be a problem this time around.
Woodley wasn’t very active early in the first fight, which likely cost him judges’ points. I would expect him to be aggressive from the start on Saturday. He knows he can hurt Paul, so he’ll likely try to land a higher volume of shots. Let’s also not forget that this is a legacy fight for Woodley. He’s a former UFC champ and pride can be a dangerous motivator for his opponent if Paul starts to look past him.
There’s not a lot left to lose for Woodley. He already took the L in the first fight, so he can only go up from here. I fully expect Woodley to come out strong in this fight and potentially end it early.
Jake Paul vs. Tyron Woodley II Boxing Prediction
If there’s one thing the first fight between Paul and Woodley showed us, it’s that both fighters are close in terms of skill. Paul has the size and age advantage, while Woodley has the fight experience and motivation. A rematch benefits Woodley, who has experience fighting the same opponent multiple times and adjusting to their strengths and weaknesses, as opposed to Paul who has never fought the same opponent twice. Book the rubber match because Woodley will win this fight by mid-round KO/TKO.
