Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor Odds & Prediction

The night is almost upon us. On Saturday from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, boxing legend Floyd Mayweather and UFC superstar Conor McGregor meet in a bout that could literally change the course of history in both boxing and mixed martial arts. Or it could be one big joke on all of us. Not knowing which makes it a can’t-miss event. Mayweather is a -400 favorite on Sports Interaction boxing odds with McGregor at +290. If you’re wondering how to watch it, check out our guide to watching Mayweather vs. McGregor in your timezone.

Bettors Backing Conor the Underdog

As of this writing, every sportsbook on the planet, including this one, is rooting big for Mayweather because McGregor has taken a shocking amount of betting action. Around 90 percent at some books. The Irishman had been as high as +1100 when the first odds were released on this then-hypothetical fight. Don’t be surprised, however, if Mayweather is a bigger favourite than currently by the first bell. Most boxing and MMA fights take their biggest overall action in the final 36 hours or so before a fight. History has shown that late action – it’s true on events like the Super Bowl – will come in on the favourite.

UFC Needs Some Good Press

The UFC could use a good result here. That’s because the organization has had some drug-related black eyes, and the latest came this week. Light-heavyweight champion Jon Jones, considered the No. 1 pound-for-pound MMA fighter, failed a drug test ahead of his title-regaining victory over Daniel Cormier at UFC 214 last month. If the results of the failed test hold, Jones’ win over Cormier will be changed to a no-contest and Jones will be stripped of the belt and suspended perhaps for good. It’s the second time Jones has tested positive; he was pulled from a title bout against Cormier a few days before UFC 200 in July 2016 and served a year suspension.

Also at UFC 200, former heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar tested positive for PEDs and had his win over Mark Hunt changed to an ND. Jones had challenged Lesnar to a fight after beating Cormier, but Jones’ career in the Octagon now could be over. UFC president Dana White admitted that the UFC had been looking at a potential Jones bout in December not vs. Lesnar but vs. current heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic. That would have been the most-hyped MMA bout ever.

On Saturday, the UFC doesn’t need McGregor to win, but having him fight competitively would be a plus. A disqualification for some silly MMA move would be the worst possible outcome. Boxing a whole, meanwhile, really has nothing to gain here and only a lot to lose via a potential Mayweather loss.

Against All Odds

A McGregor victory would arguably be a bigger upset than Buster Douglas over Mike Tyson — even if not from an oddsmakers’ perspective. Douglas, who was +5000 at some sportsbooks that February 1990 night in Tokyo, at least had a few dozen professional fights under his belt before beating Tyson. McGregor is making his boxing debut against one of the greatest fighters ever in Mayweather, who is attempting to become the first boxer to be 50-0.
There is a prevailing thought that so many bets are rolling in on Mayweather for two reasons: 1) He’s the “Great White Hope” and 2) Mayweather is reviled and a convicted abuser of women. But Mayweather’s status as a defensive genius isn’t up for debate. He wins by avoiding being hit. In 40 pro fights tracked by CompuBox, Mayweather has only been outlanded once.

Mayweather will be fighting off a 714-day layoff, the longest of his career, and has admitted he has lost a step at age 40. Don’t be fooled, that’s to help sell pay-per-view buys by giving McGregor backers hope. McGregor is 11 years longer and has a 2-inch reach.

The Nevada State Athletic Commission made a controversial decision to allow a one-time exception for the glove size changed from 10 ounces down to 8 ounces. Usually, boxing matches contested above 147 pounds, and this is at 154 pounds, mandates 10-ounce gloves. One school of thought is that McGregor has a better chance of winning by knockout with smaller gloves. He fights with 4-ounce gloves in the UFC.

The first round could be the most interesting Saturday night because McGregor will want to make a statement immediately that he belongs and perhaps put seeds of doubt in Mayweather’s mind. Going the full 12 rounds could be tough for McGregor considering his background.

Sports Interaction offers some interesting first-round specials. That McGregor lands the first punch is +256 and that he wins the first round on any judges’ card is +278. That either fighter is knocked down in Round 1 is +580 and either bleeds +800. There are also tons of props you can check out for this fight.

Mayweather vs. McGregor Predictions

This will break all sorts of pay-per-view records, so lean over the 5 million buys at -255. The best bet on the board is over 9.5 rounds at +134. Mayweather’s fights usually go the distance (but as long as it goes 10 you win on the rounds prop). This should too, with “Money” winning by decision at +240. One way to almost guarantee a rematch? If there’s a draw (+3500).