Andre Ward vs. Sergey Kovalev 2: Odds and Predictions

If you believe Ring Magazine, and most consider that the bible of boxing, the top two pound-for-pound fighters in the sport will face off Saturday night on pay-per-view from Las Vegas when Andre Ward puts his WBO, IBF and WBA light heavyweight titles on the line in a highly-anticipated rematch against Sergey Kovalev billed as “No Excuses.” Ward is -122 on Sports Interaction boxing odds with Kovalev at -101 and a draw at +2200.

Ward vs. Kovalev Rematch

Let me preface this story by saying it’s going to be a stellar summer for contact sports and betting on them here at Sports Interaction. In addition to this fight, there’s UFC 213 and 214 in July, and a potential Floyd Mayweather-Conor McGregor show-stopper in August (maybe). There’s also a mega-showdown between Gennady Golovkin and Canelo Alvarez in September.

Some of the biggest names in American boxing history started on the road to fame and world titles in the Olympics. Names like Floyd Patterson, Cassius Clay, George Foreman, Pernell Whitaker, Ray Leonard and Oscar De La Hoya to name just a few. The United States hasn’t had a men’s Olympic gold medalist in the sport, any division, since Ward in the light heavyweight division in 2004. He turned pro later that year and hasn’t lost since.

Andre Ward Odds

The 33-year-old Ward is 31-0 with 15 knockouts and the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world, according to Ring Magazine. He went off around -170 against Kovalev last November also in Las Vegas. Ward was being dominated in the early rounds and was knocked down in Round 2. However, he found his footing and was the better fighter late, including winning the 12th and final round. That proved huge as all three judges scored it 114-113 for Ward, who became the seventh fighter to win titles at super middleweight and light heavyweight.

Many respected ringside observers disagreed with the decision. CompuBox had Ward connecting on 34 percent (116 of 338) of his punches. Kovalev threw more but connected on a smaller percentage (126 of 474, 27 percent). Kovalev landed more power shots (78) than Ward (61).

Sergey Kovalev Odds

Kovalev (30-1-1 26 KOs) had a 14-fight winning streak snapped since his draw vs. Grover Young in 2011. “Krusher” originally won the WBO, IBF and WBA light heavyweight belts in 2014 with a unanimous decision over Bernard Hopkins. Kovalev also defended those belts successfully twice at the Bell Centre in Montreal against Canadian Jean Pascal. Kovalev beat him by eighth-round TKO in the first meeting in March 2015. Pascal was knocked down for the first time in his career in Round 3 and then by corner stoppage in Round 7 in January 2016.

This time around, Kovalev says he’s planning to win by knockout. In the first fight he felt the American judges showed favoritism toward Ward and that he got a “gift.” The Russian also believes he over-trained, which is what led to Ward stealing the fight in the later rounds. Kovalev’s trainer, John David Jackson, has said the only major adjustment is to fight “more aggressive” in the second half Saturday. Kovalev had knocked out 12 of his previous 14 opponents before the Ward loss. Both fighters stand 6-feet tall, but Kovalev has a little more than an inch reach advantage.

Boxing Odds & Predictions

I have little doubt that Kovalev will be more aggressive. It’s still likely going the distance because Ward is such a strong tactician and has a style reminiscent of Mayweather. While you can’t rule out a draw with how close the first fight was, Ward remains unbeaten with another unanimous decision victory. Eight of his past 10 victories have come via that route.