NHL
Jordan Ramsay
January 1, 2025

2025 IIHF World Junior Championship Quarterfinals: Canada vs. Czechia Odds, Prediction

Canada closed out preliminary round action on New Year’s Eve against the United States, with a chance to clinch top spot in Group A. Unfortunately, the Canadians stumbled in a 4-1 loss against their longtime rivals to drop to third in the group and a date with Czechia.

The Czechs also had a chance to clinch first in their group, but fell short in a 4-2 loss against Sweden.

Canada is a -600 favourite to win on the World Junior odds, with the puck at -2.5 and the total set at 6.0.

2025 IIHF World Junior Championship Betting Odds

Canada and Czechia have been familiar foes at the World Juniors in recent years. Canada beat the Czechs in the gold medal game two years ago, while Czechia got their revenge by eliminating the Canadians in last year’s quarterfinals. Overall, Canada has a 21-3-2 (1-1 in OT/SO) edge over Czechia, while outscoring them 120-48.

Czechia’s head-to-head stats against Canada don’t tell the whole story as they have produced much stronger results over the last few years. The Czechs have medalled in back-to-back tournaments, earning silver in 2023 and bronze in 2024, and they’ve reached the medal round in three straight years. However, the golden age of Czech junior hockey still remains the decade from 1996-2005 when they had seven final four finishes, including back-to-back gold medals in 2000 and 2001.

The Canadians are looking to build on their program’s overall tally of 20 gold medals and 35 total medals, both tournament records. Last year’s fifth place finish broke a streak of four straight years Canada reached the gold medal game, winning three. The Canadians have only failed to medal in consecutive years twice in program history (2013, 2014 and 1979, 1980, 1981).

Canada still boasts the second-shortest odds to win gold on the World Junior futures board, but they dropped from +150 prior to facing the Americans to +225 ahead of the quarterfinals. The Czech odds also dropped, going from +2000 to +2500. Team USA is the current tournament favourite at +125, while Sweden (+325) and Finland (+1000) round out the top four.

Team Canada

Canada outshot the U.S. 39-28 on Tuesday, but a serious lack of discipline cost the team. The Canadians gave the Americans seven power plays for 22 penalty minutes and the U.S. capitalized with three goals on the man advantage before sealing the game with an empty-netter. Bradley Nadeau scored Canada’s lone goal early in the third period. Frankly, it’s baffling that Canada went the entire round robin without allowing an even strength goal, yet lost two games and finished third in Group A.

You can’t put any of the blame on Canadian goalie Carter George, who has pitched a shutout in two of three games. In addition to leading the tournament in shutouts, George is also first in both goals-against average (1.01) and save percentage (.964). The issue is Canada’s shooting percentage (5.78), which ranks dead last among all teams.

Team Czechia

Czechia finished the preliminary round second in Group B, posting a 3-0-0-1 record with a tournament-best plus-16 goal differential. That positive goal differential is in large part thanks to a 14-2 blowout over Kazakhstan, but the Czechs have still managed to allow two or less goals in three of four games. The Czech trio of Vojtech Hradec, Eduard Sale and Jakub Stancl all share a lead in tournament goal scoring with four each, while Petr Sikora (plus-nine) and Jakub Fibigr (plus-eight) lead in plus/minus.

Michael Hrabal has emerged as the starter in net for Czechia. Hrabal has won two of three starts, posting a solid 2.36 GAA and .926 SV. It’s been Czechia’s scoring efficiency, however, that has benefitted them the most throughout the tournament. The Czechs lead the tournament with a 19.7 shooting percentage and eight players are averaging at least a point per game.