Chargers vs. Falcons Point Spread: NFL Week 9 Odds, Prediction
The Falcons escaped with a 37-34 overtime win over Carolina last weekend to improve their straight up record to 4-4, and now enjoy a one-game lead over the slumping Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the hard-fought NFC South. The Chargers enjoyed a bye last weekend after seeing a three-game win streak halted by a shocking 37-23 loss to Seattle that dumps them to 4-3 on the season.
The Chargers have held steady since opening as 3-point favourites. But with the backing of 67% of sports bettors, Los Angeles has emerged as a short -119 bet to cover. The total has rocketed to 49.5 since opening at 47, with the OVER attracting a heavy 83% majority of the betting action.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Sunday afternoon’s matchup at Mercedes-Benz Stadium marks the first clash between these teams since 2020, and the Chargers’ first visit to Dixie in six years. The Chargers claimed victory in both those contests, including a narrow 33-30 win in their 2016 matchup. Those victories come on the heels of a dismal six-game straight up losing streak in head-to-head action, in which the Chargers averaged a meagre 10.2 points per game. Accordingly, the UNDER has consistently paid out when these teams meet, going 8-1 in nine all-time clashes between these clubs. Los Angeles has also produced mixed results in their first game after a bye, going 4-4 straight up in their past eight overall, and 2-6 in their past eight played on the road. However, they face a Falcons squad that has surrendered 69 total points over their past two games, and are now mired in two-game winless streak against the spread after covering in their first six contests of the season.
Los Angeles Chargers
Last week’s bye could not have come at a better time for the Chargers, who have been beset by injuries to key personnel since the start of the season. One of the big beneficiaries of last week’s break should be quarterback Justin Herbert, who has struggled at times while playing through a rib injury. Despite his health struggles, Herbert has been prolific while making over 50 pass attempts in each of his past two outings. Overall, Herbert has connected on 12 scoring passes this season, including two versus Seattle, but has also been forced to work with a receiving corps that remains devastated by injury. Limited to just two appearances so far this season, Keenan Allen was once again absent from practice on Monday as he nurses a hamstring injury. Top producer Mike Williams is also on the shelf with an ankle injury that will reportedly sideline him for at least four weeks, while the status of Joshua Palmer remains uncertain after missing the team’s Week 7 loss with a concussion. The good news for the Chargers is they will be facing a Falcons secondary that has allowed seven scoring passes over the past three weeks and ranks dead last in the NFL with 306.9 passing yards per game allowed.
Atlanta Falcons
Good fortune played a massive role in Atlanta’s overtime win over Carolina last week. The Falcons were lucky to see the game go to overtime after the Panthers missed what would have been the game-winning extra point after DJ Moore was hit with a penalty for removing his helmet after making the game-tying catch. And after Marcus Mariota turned tossed an interception in OT, fortune once again smiled on this team, as the Panthers missed a potential game-winning field goal attempt. None of this takes anything away from Mariota, who otherwise impressed last week while connecting on 71.4% of pass attempts for a season-high 253 yards and three scores. However, the Falcons must find a way to generate more offense early on, and avoid the type of letdown they endured last weekend. This squad has been blanked in the first quarter in three of their past four outings. Indeed, a fast start could make a huge difference against an injury-ravaged Chargers attack that has scored an average of just 2.3 points in the first quarter so far this season.
LAC
ATL