UFC 272: Kevin Holland vs. Alex Oliveira Odds, Prediction
It’s back to Las Vegas on Saturday night for UFC 272. The main card will feature Kevin Holland dropping down to welterweight for the first time in his UFC career. The former middleweight will take on unranked Alex Oliveira. Holland’s five victories in 2020 tied the UFC record for most wins in a calendar year, but he’s struggled and gone winless in three fights since. It’s been even tougher for Oliveira, who has lost his last three fights and six of his last eight. Both fighters desperately need a win here.
Holland is a -370 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Oliveira is a +260 underdog.
Kevin Holland UFC 272 Odds
Holland (21-7 MMA record, one no contest) had one of the most dominant years in UFC history in 2020, with three of his five wins coming by first-round TKO. Fighting at middleweight, he was a “Fighter of the Year” contender and entered 2021 as one of the most hyped fighters in the sport.
Unfortunately, Holland’s success didn’t carry over in 2021. He was winless in three fights, with unanimous decision losses against Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori. His last fight against Kyle Daukaus ended in a bizarre no contest. Holland was briefly knocked unconscious following an accidental clash of heads.
“Trailblazer” is an explosive offensive fighter and possesses major power even at middleweight. He’s got a large 4.5-inch reach advantage and he averages 3.67 significant strikes landed per minute (2.97 for Oliveira) with 54 per cent accuracy (51 per cent for Oliveira).
This fight is essentially a test for Holland at welterweight. It’s a fight he should win because he’s a better and more durable striker. He’s also improved his defensive wrestling considerably. The key will be how he handles smaller, quicker opponents. If his cardio holds up with a tougher weight-cut, his power and striking ability could make him a force at welterweight.
Alex Oliveira UFC 272 Odds
It’s been a tough slide for Oliveira (22-11-1 MMA record, two no contests). He debuted in the UFC in 2015, winning nine of his first 12 fights, but he’s been stuck in a major slump for almost four years now. Over that time he’s lost six of eight fights, including his last three.
Oliveira fell by first-round submission to both Shavkat Rakhmonov and Randy Brown. He lost his last fight by unanimous decision against Niko Price. There has to be a lot of pressure on the 34-year-old, as you wonder how many more losses he can take before he’s cut from the UFC roster.
“Cowboy” is one of the more powerful welterweights, but his biggest strength is on the ground. He averages 2.27 takedowns per 15 minutes, compared to just 0.9 for Holland. Oliveira’s 63 per cent takedown defence is also better than Holland’s 50 per cent mark.
Oliveira is a capable striker, but with Holland’s reach advantage and power, Oliveira’s best strategy is to get this fight on the ground. Keep in mind, Holland is cutting an additional 15 pounds, which could very likely sap some energy. If Oliveira can take advantage of that and get on top, he’ll have a solid shot at a submission.
UFC 272 Prediction: Holland vs. Oliveira
It’s tough to see the UFC not cutting Oliveira with a loss, so I’d bank on him being dangerous with his back against the wall. Because of the no contest, Holland has only technically lost two consecutive fights, but there’s still pressure for him to win if he wants to stay at welterweight. Holland still has a lot of potential and I’m willing to chalk it up his recent struggles to a heavy workload and short notice fights. Holland wins by unanimous decision.
