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Toronto Tempo vs. Minnesota Lynx WNBA preview and prediction

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The WNBA’s best team got infinitely better just before the All-Star break. Fresh off adding reigning Defensive Player of the Year and MVP runner-up Napheesa Collier back into the starting lineup, the Minnesota Lynx host the reeling Toronto Tempo Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET.

The second half of the season begins with the Lynx sporting a league-best 22-6 record, including 10-4 at home, where they have won four straight. Collier had 24 points and 10 rebounds in her season debut following March surgery on both ankles as Minnesota defeated the Seattle Storm, 86-76, to close the first half on a seven-game win streak.

The Tempo are going in the opposite direction. Isabelle Harrison had a career-high 26 points to go along with 11 rebounds, but Toronto concluded a dreadful 2-7 homestand with a 109-83 setback to the Las Vegas Aces in their final game before the break. Injuries have mounted up for the Tempo, who are 3-11 after starting the season 7-5.

This is the first of two games in three days between the teams. Minnesota took the season opener between the teams in May, 100-72. 

Toronto Tempo vs. Minnesota Lynx WNBA Odds and Betting Trends

The Lynx are a heavy 14.5-point favourite at home, with a -1200 moneyline on the WNBA odds. Toronto’s moneyline is at +750. 

The Tempo are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games, but 7-3 ATS on the road this season. Minnesota is 1-3 straight up and 3-1 against the spread at home. Thanks to heavy spreads, the Lynx are 0-5 against the spread in their last five contests, despite winning all five of those games. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.

The Over/Under for this contest is 184.5. The Lynx have played to the Over in five of six, while Toronto has played to the Over in four of five.  

Toronto Tempo

Brittney Sykes (21.6 ppg) has been out since mid-June with plantar fasciitis, and she is expected to be out a little longer, as is rookie backcourt partner Kiki Rice (12.7 ppg, 4.7 REB).

Nyara Sabally (11.7 ppg, 4.8 REB) is questionable with an injury to her ribs. Harrison (13.8 ppg, 6.4 REB), having perhaps her best all-around season, is questionable with a knee injury. 

Marina Mabrey scored a season-low three points when these teams met in May, one of just five games in which the first-time All-Star has failed to reach double digits.  

Minnesota Lynx

The Lynx were supposed to struggle without Collier. Instead, thanks to the arrival of Olivia Miles (19.3 ppg, 6 AST, 4.7 reb), strong seasons from veteran guards Kayla McBride (18.2 ppg, 2.6 three-pointers per game) and Courtney Williams (15.3 ppg, 5.4 REB, 4.2 AST), and productive campaigns from offseason frontcourt additions Natasha Howard (15.9 ppg, 8.0 REB) and Nia Coffey (7.7 ppg, 5.2 REB), Minnesota has thrived.

Adding Collier to the mix strengthens the Lynx’s bid for its first WNBA title since 2017, and fifth overall.

But bear in mind that Minnesota also finished last season with the league’s best record at 34-10, and the team was bounced in the playoffs in the semifinals. Nothing matters to this franchise but winning it all this year. 

WNBA Prediction: Who will win Tempo vs. Lynx?

Toronto suffered the worst defeat in franchise history against the Lynx in May, with everyone healthy, despite Collier’s absence.

Now, she’s back while Sykes, Rice, and potentially more are out. The 14.5-point spread is a stiff one, but Minnesota should cover. Take the Lynx to win, 104-82.