Atlanta Dream vs. Connecticut Sun: WNBA Preview and Prediction
The Atlanta Dream (29-14, 13-8 road) visit the Connecticut Sun (11-32, 7-14 home) on Wednesday night in the final game of the 2025 WNBA regular season. These two just met Monday in Atlanta, where the Dream rolled to an 87-62 win, a victory that set a league record for first-year head coach Karl Smesko with his 29th win.
Atlanta has already clinched a top-three playoff seed but still has something to play for: the No. 2 seed. With Las Vegas right on their heels and the head-to-head advantage over Atlanta in the case of a tie, the Dream need to close strong. The Sun have long been out of playoff contention, but they’re 5-5 over their last 10 games and motivated to play spoiler at home. These teams have met four times already this year, with Atlanta holding a 3-1 series edge.
Atlanta Dream vs. Connecticut Sun WNBA Odds and Betting
The Dream are 14-point favourites on the road with a total set at 158 points on the WNBA odds board. Atlanta has won five straight and is 8-2 in its last 10, averaging nearly 85 points per game in that stretch. Connecticut has been better lately, covering in several underdog spots and scoring 76 points in both previous home meetings with Atlanta. Both games in Uncasville cleared 158 points (160 and 169), a notable trend for bettors eyeing the Over.
Atlanta Dream
Atlanta comes in scorching hot, winners of five straight and boasting the league’s most productive first-year head coach in Smesko. Rhyne Howard has been the engine, averaging 3.7 made threes over her last 10, while Allisha Gray continues to provide steady scoring at 18.5 points per game. The Dream are among the WNBA’s best on the glass, especially on the offensive boards, which is a major problem for a Connecticut side ranked dead last in defensive rebounding.
Defensively, Atlanta is tough but has a weakness: points in the paint. They rank only eighth in interior defence, which matters against a Sun team that lives inside with Tina Charles and Aneesah Morrow. Atlanta doesn’t force many turnovers, so expect Connecticut to get shots up. Still, the Dream’s depth and balance make them a legitimate threat to uphold forward momentum into the postseason.
Connecticut Sun
The Sun may be well out of the playoff race, but they’ve shown pride in closing the season. Monday’s blowout aside, they’ve gone 5-5 over their last 10, a stretch that’s produced nearly half their wins on the year. Rookie Saniya Rivers continues to shine, setting a franchise rookie record with 42 threes. Tina Charles leads the way with 16.5 points and 5.9 rebounds, and Aneesha Morrow has been a double-double machine.
Connecticut is at its best when attacking the paint, where they poured in 44 and 48 interior points in two previous home games against Atlanta. Their three-point shooting (30.6%) is among the worst in the league, so they’ll rely on Charles, Morrow and Marina Mabrey inside. Playing their final home game of 2025, the Sun will be motivated to finish strong in front of their fans.
WNBA Prediction: Who Will Win Dream vs. Sun?
The Dream are clearly the better team and should take care of business, but the Sun have been pesky at home and are likely to put in one more gritty effort. Atlanta’s dominance on the offensive boards should eventually wear Connecticut down, but the Sun’s paint production should keep this from being a total runaway. Given that both prior meetings in Connecticut cleared this number, the Over looks the right way to go, with the score likely to finish around 87-75 to the Dream.
