2025 TNF Same-Game Parlay: Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins
The Thursday Night Football matchup for Week 9 features a pair of disappointing teams as the Miami Dolphins play host to the Baltimore Ravens.
Both teams have struggled with poor defensive stats, but there’s reason for optimism. Baltimore is expected to get back quarterback Lamar Jackson from a hamstring injury, while the Dolphins are feeling good after a blowout win in Atlanta.
In this week’s Thursday Night Football parlay I’m banking on a back-and-forth shootout, with Miami avoiding a blowout.
Here’s what I have for a four-leg parlay priced at +1173:
- Dolphins +7.5 (-110)
- Total Over 50.5 (-110)
- De’Von Achane Over 60.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Derrick Henry Over 90.5 rushing yards (-115)
You can also take a look at our full game preview and score prediction here.
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Dolphins +7.5
The Dolphins aren’t a good football team by any means, but I have faith in them keeping this game within a touchdown in a short week at home. Miami has been competitive even in losses, with two of their last three defeats decided by three or less points.
The Phins should also be able to feast on a putrid Ravens defence that is ranked 28th overall, 28th against the pass and 23rd against the run.
Just last week, Miami pumped the Falcons 34-10, so I think the confidence boost will help.
Total Over 50.5
The trends all point to this being a high scoring game at Hard Rock Stadium.
The Over has hit in nine straight Dolphins home games and the offence has scored at least 27 points in eight straight at home, including all three home dates this season. And Miami’s defence isn’t much better than Baltimore, ranking 23rd overall and 28th against the rush.
The Ravens have also trended toward higher scoring games, with the Over hitting in six of seven this season. The four games Lamar Jackson has played this year have totalled at least 57 combined points, with an average of 66. In fact, Baltimore has scored 30 or more points in seven of Jackson’s last eight regular season starts.
De’Von Achane Over 60.5 rushing yards
I like De’Von Achane for a big game here. The former third round draft pick out of Texas A&M broke out as a dual threat last season, rushing 203 times for 903 yards and six TDs while adding 78 receptions for 592 yards and six more scores.
Achane continues to be effective in 2025, rushing for 539 yards and three TDs. He’s been even more impactful over the last three weeks, rushing for 128 yards against the Chargers, 82 yards against the Browns and 67 yards against the Falcons.
Derrick Henry Over 90.5 rushing yards
With Jackson injured, Derrick Henry has been on beast mode over the last two weeks, combining for 193 rushing yards and two TDs. I don’t expect Baltimore to throw Jackson back on the field and expect a ton of carries, so Henry will handle the bulk of the work again this week.
Henry should torch a Miami defence that is allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game (145.0) and the fourth-most yards per carry (5.0).
