2025 NFL Week 12 TNF: Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans same-game parlay
It’s a matchup of offence versus defence to open Week 12 in the NFL. The Buffalo Bills boast the fourth-highest scoring offence in the NFL, but they’ll have their work cut out for them against the Houston Texans’ NFL-best scoring defence.
In this week’s Thursday Night Football same-game parlay I’m banking on Houston’s defence making this a tight, low scoring affair.
Here’s what I have for a three-leg parlay price at +575:
- Texans +5.5 (+100)
- Total Under 43.5 (-110)
- Woody Marks anytime touchdown (+135)
You can also take a look at our full game preview and score prediction here.
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Texans +5.5
Houston is just 5-5 on the year, but they’ve largely remained competitive in most games, with only one loss coming by more than a touchdown. That clearly comes down to the NFL’s best defensive unit.
The Texans rank first in total defence and scoring defence, and they are the third-best unit against both the pass and the rush. They’re allowing an average of just 16.3 points per game this season, which should be enough to keep them within six points of the Bills.
Total Under 43.5
While Buffalo just posted a season-high 44 points against Tampa Bay last week, I’ve got this game pegged as lower scoring. I’ve already gone over Houston’s top tier defensive unit, so let’s look at this from the Bills’ perspective.
Buffalo’s ground game has been more reliable this season, so I think they’ll lean heavily on James Cook, who has the second-most rushing yards (968) in the NFL this season. Running the ball will chew the clock and keep this total low.
Woody Marks anytime TD
Sticking with the theme of running the ball, I also have rookie running back Woody Marks having a breakout game for the Texans. Marks has seen his workload continually increase, posting double-digit carries in five straight games, including a season-high 18 last week.
Houston’s game plan should also be focused on running the ball. While the Bills have the second-best passing defence in the NFL, they actual rank 31st against the run. Buffalo has allowed 15 touchdowns to running backs this season, tied with Cincinnati for the most allowed.
