Napoli vs AC Milan: Champions League Quarter-Final 2nd Leg Odds, Prediction

The Stadio Diego Armando Maradona will be bouncing on Tuesday evening when these Italian and Serie A rivals meet for a crucial game. This is about local pride, bragging rights, and of course a ticket to the Champions League semi-finals.

Decent chalk is written down for the hosts, with Luciano Spalletti’s side pinned as -139 favourites on the Champions League odds. The Rossoneri are +357 and a draw is set at +273.

Napoli vs AC Milan Betting Analysis

After Manchester City thrashed Bayern Munich 3-0 in England on Tuesday, sights turned to last Wednesday for the AC Milan – Napoli bout, which proved an arresting, testy, tense affair.

The jury is out on this one. Milan won last week, but only 1-0. The lone goal of the contest came against the run of play from Ismaël Bennacer in the 40^th minute. The hit was very good, but the effort by Napoli keeper Alex Meret could have been a bit better. Close observation of the game reveals that the visitors didn’t play all that poorly, but they definitely missed Victor Osimhen, who returned to action over the weekend after nursing an injury. Napoli can also take solace in the fact that they didn’t concede a second goal after going down a man when André-Frank Zambo Anguissa was given his second yellow card in the 74^th.

As a franchise, AC Milan are no stranger to reaching Champions League semis, nor would winning it all be new to them. The last time they had that much success was some time ago in 2007. For Napoli, these are definitely new heights. The club has never partaken in a Champions League semi-final, let alone the quarters.

Napoli

The return of Victor Osimhen couldn’t arrive at a better time. Not only was his blazing touch lacking in last week’s first leg battle with AC Milan at the San Siro, but Napoli haven’t looked the same for a few weeks by now.

Napoli leads the Serie A by 14 points, so few are worried about the much sought-after scudetto. The bigger issue, especially heading into this second leg, is the absence of the fire and panache that characterized the first few months of their campaign. They have one win in their last four games, with two defeats in all competitions coming against Tuesday’s opponents. The lone victory was a less-than-stellar 2-1 final against Lecce. This past Saturday saw them host relegation-threatened Hellas Verona and only manage a 0-0 draw. Chances were created, it wasn’t as if Napoli didn’t do anything, but once again they just didn’t look like themselves.

AC Milan

Stefano Pioli’s side abandoned its dream of winning the league in 2022-2023 many moons ago. They trail Tuesday’s opponents by a gargantuan 22 points. It is the fight to partake in next year’s Champions League that they seek. In other words, a top-four finish in Serie A.

Granted, winning this year’s competition will do just that, but until then, points in the domestic league are imperative. They earned one on Saturday away to Bologna – who confusingly have very similar crest and colours to Milan – but really could have used all three. In fact, the hosts took the initiative within 60 seconds, as Nicola Sansone made good on a low, strong cross into the box. It was a close contest from that point onwards, with most statistical categories ending up almost even. Thankfully for Milan Tommaso Pobega leveled in the 40^th minute with a superb hit from outside the box that rattled off the right post before floating in. Milan had chances to lead 2-1 in the second half but misfired several times. Make the final 1-1.

Champions League Prediction: Who Will Win Napoli vs AC Milan?

Napoli 2-1 AC Milan (tied 2-2 at the end of two matches. Napoli win on penalties)