MLS Cup playoffs odds: Inter Miami vs. Nashville SC preview and prediction

After suffering a 2-1 setback to Nashville SC at Geodis Park last weekend, Inter Miami returns home to host the Golden Boys in the deciding leg of their MLS Eastern Conference first-round best-of-three series Saturday night at 8 pm ET.

Inter Miami is aiming to advance past the first round for the first time in club history in its fourth postseason appearance. More importantly, it’s hoping not to replicate recent history, as the Herons took the opening match against Atlanta United last year before dropping the next two contests.

Nashville SC’s leading scorer, Sam Surridge, and Josh Bauer tallied first-half goals in last week’s victory, while MVP finalists and Golden Boot winner Lionel Messi scored late for Miami. It was his eighth goal in four matches versus the Golden Boys this year.

Inter Miami vs. Nashville SC Odds and betting trends

Nashville SC is 1-7-1 straight up in its last nine road matches. Coach BJ Callaghan’s side is just 6-11-1 against the spread away from home this season, and has lost to Inter Miami twice at Chase Stadium in Fort Lauderdale this season.

Inter Miami is 12-3-3 straight up and 10-7-1 against the spread at home. They are 5-0-1 straight up in their last six home matches against Nashville SC.

Inter Miami

The Herons finished third in the Eastern Conference with a 19-7-8 record and easily paced MLS with 81 goals. Messi scored 29 to lead the league and has 45 tallies in 40 appearances across all competitions.

Messi has been particularly unkind to Nashville SC this season, scoring eight goals in four matches. He recorded his second MLS hat trick last month in a 5-2 win in Nashville after scoring both goals in a 2-1 home triumph over the Golden Boys in July. He then found the back of the net twice in Inter Miami’s 3-1 victory in the series opener.

The team will need to complete this quest without Luis Suarez, as the Uruguayan was issued a one-match ban for violent conduct after kicking Nashville SC defender Andy Najar in the second leg.

Nashville SC

The Golden Boys got a huge monkey off their backs with last week’s victory, which ended a 10-match winless streak against Inter Miami dating back to Messi’s arrival more than two years ago.

Surridge, who finished second to Messi for the league’s Golden Boot with 20 regular-season goals, will be key to Nashville SC’s ability to advance tomorrow night, along with master distributor Hany Mukhtar, who scored in the first game of the series and assisted on Josh Bauer’s goal last week. Mukhtar had 16 goals and led the Golden Boys with 12 assists.

MLS Playoffs prediction: Who will win Inter Miami vs. Nashville SC?

Both franchises are still fairly new to the MLS landscape. Despite providing raucous crowds and massive excitement, neither side has made a significant dent in the postseason.

Nashville SC did win the 2025 Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup, and last week’s victory offers the Golden Boys the confidence in advancing. However, this match is in Inter Miami’s backyard. And Messi has had Nashville SC’s number all season.

Look for the Herons to win, 3-1, and advance to meet the winner of FC Cincinnati and Columbus Crew in an Eastern Conference semifinal.