MLS Betting : How Many 2024 Lionel Messi Goals for Inter Miami?

When word got out last May that Barcelona, Paris Saint-Germain, Argentina superstar Lionel Messi was coming to America to play in MLS, it felt like a pivotal moment in the league’s history. Yes, David Beckham wearing L.A. Galaxy colours was important, as were the arrivals of Kaka, Didier Drogba, Thierry Henry, and Wayne Rooney, but nothing compares to Messi.

To that point, the 2022 World Cup winner is so talented, so proficient, and so dominant in his sport that it was assumed that he’d mop the floor with the North American competition.

Here’s a fun prop for North American soccer fans. Operating under the completely justifiable assumption that Messi is the best player in the league, how many goals will he score in MLS this season?

As it stands, the over-under is 20.5 goals. Both are priced at -110. A nice, relatively safe bet.

Check out our Season Specials to play this Messi goal prop and of course our MLS odds for all the league action this season.

Lionel Messi Goal Projection for Inter Miami

To be clear, this prop pertains to matches during which he’ll represent his MLS club Inter Miami CF. We bring this up because summer 2024 sees the latest edition of the Copa America starting on June 20. Furthermore, MLS will not be taking a break during that span, so depending on how well Argentina performs in the international tournament, Inter Miami could be without his services for potentially five games.

Those matches run from June 19 versus the defending champion Columbus Crew (Messi won’t play an MLS game the day before the Copa begins) to July 17 against Toronto FC. Would “La Pulga” be up for the July 20 game at home to Chicago Fire FC? Time will tell. We don’t even know if Argentina will be in the Copa final.

How Messi is Performing with Inter Miami

Looking back at last season as ground zero, the Argentinian was a wrecking ball in the Leagues Cup which pits MLS clubs versus Liga MX sides in the same competition. He scored 10 times in only seven games en route to Miami lifting the trophy. Granted, those were not MLS contests per se, but it was a good indicator of the sort of damage he could cause against local opponents.

The current MLS campaign got under way four weeks ago. He sat out one match last Sunday at home to CF Montreal. In the other three contests, he’s netted thrice for an exceptional goal-per-game average thus far. However, he left this week’s CONCACAF Champions League match versus Nashville early – after scoring – with a leg injury. Word has it that he’ll miss the next MLS game. Miami manager Gerardo “Tato” Martino revealed that his star has some muscle overload in his right leg.

Therein lies the rub. Talent will carry a player only so far. The physicality of the game, any game, eventually takes its toll. Messi is 36 years old, with his 37^th birthday coming up on June 24. When he’s on the pitch, he dominates. Even the best Major League Soccer has to offer, or Liga MX for that matter, can’t stop him. But how often will he play? How often will he play 90 minutes? How often will he be subbed off in the 50^th because of a nagging soreness?

Lionel Messi 2024 MLS Goal Prediction

MLS clubs play 34 matches. Messi has missed one. He’s probably missing this week’s. Let’s be conservative and assume he misses all five during the Copa America. That’s seven games down, 27 remaining. Leagues Cup games, more CONCACAF matches, persisting ailments, etc. He’ll also be setting up teammate Luis Suarez for a lot of goals as well. A 20-game season is feasible, maybe more, but not much more. We could see it capping at 22 or 23 matches played.

Messi has shown that, when playing MLS-level opponents, he can net once per game. The over-under is 20.5 and we’re guessing he’ll play that many, perhaps a few more. It’s very, very tight, but this is “La Pulga” we’re talking about. A living legend. Let’s live like he does and live large.

Prediction: Take the over.