How to Bet Underdog Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League Final

Real Madrid is like the Marvel villain Thanos. They are “inevitable.” No, we aren’t painting Los Blancos as the bad guys, just that they have a knack for owning European cup tournaments. They’ve won the trophy – in its current form or previous iterations – a whopping 14 times. They most recently pulled off the feat in 2022 against Liverpool. After knocking out Red Bull Leipzig, Manchester City, and Bayern Munich this year, they’re off to the final in Wembley.

But today’s piece is not about how amazing Real Madrid are and how they will win Saturday’s big game. Everybody knows they are amazing and most believe they will lift the trophy. Rather, we thought we’d explore game props that lean toward Borussia Dortmund. After all, what’s the fun in placing the safest bet possible? Madrid at -303 to win on the Champions League odds board? Boring!

There’s also an old expression that says: “That’s why they play the game.” You never really know what might happen.

Of course, don’t forget to check out all of our Champions League props.

How Borussia Dortmund Got Here

Both clubs played thrilling knockout stage contests against their respective opponents. But those that Borussia Dortmund vanquished reveal some secrets to their success.

Manager Edin Terzic had mostly gone with the same formation at the start of the knockout stage matches. They opt for a diamond-shaped back four and midfield that constitutes part of a 4-2-3-1 formation. Nico Schlotterbeck and Mats Hummels have served as the deep defenders with Julian Ryerson and Ian Maatsen more on the left and right flanks, a bit bit further up the pitch. The top of the diamond is made of Emre Can (left) and Marcel Sabitzer (right) in midfield.

Ahead of them is the trio of Karim Adeyemi, Julian Brandt, and Jadon Sancho. Up front at the nine position is Niclas Füllkrug. Lest they be forgotten, Marco Reus, Youssoufa Moukoko, and Felix Nmecha can all enter the proceedings as substitutes.

As good as Madrid are with the likes of Vinicius Jr, Jude Bellingham, and Rodrygo, it’s not as if Dortmund hasn’t faced stiff competition this season. After all, they knocked out Real’s cross-town rival, Atletico in the quarterfinals and then Kylian Mbappé’s Paris Saint-Germain in the semis.

Both the quarterfinals and semis were examples of the different ways in which Dortmund can surprise teams. Against Atletico, they survived a nine-goal thriller, 5-4 on aggregate. There was a never-say-die attitude about how they climbed back from a 2-1 first-leg deficit, then a 4-3 deficit in the second half of the return leg. This is a team that believes.

The script was reversed in the semifinal versus PSG, which they won 2-0 over two legs. Granted, the Parisians hit the woodwork in the return leg at the Parc des Princes, but Dortmund displayed dogged determination in limiting PSG’s chances and, most importantly, minimizing Mbappé’s effectiveness over two legs. They also have a knack for scoring timely goals, as they netted once as the road team in Paris.

Borussia Dortmund Champions League Odds

Playing Madrid is a different story altogether. Carlo Ancelotti’s group can sit back and absorb pressure (Manchester City can attest to that), just as they can erupt and dominate a game at the drop of a hat (Bayern Munich can attest to that).

The trick will mostly be to limit mistakes. They nearly played the price against PSG, who came agonizingly close to scoring a few times but couldn’t cash in. That won’t do against Real. It’s alright if they get a few chances, all teams do, but hoping Madrid hit the woodwork four times is a dubious proposition. If the holding midfielders and flanking defenders can keep Bellingham and Valverde at bay, then that limits the damage Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo can exact.

As for the props themselves, Dortmund winning in any way possible is a respectable +225. It’s not as steep as one might have thought.

If regulation ends and the score is level, that’s priced at +309. Again, it’s not that bad. Remember that some famous Madrid victories of years past required extra-time, mostly notably against Atletico in 2014 and 2016.

Dortmund winning in extra time is an extraordinary +1600. One assumes it’s because so many matches that go to extra time eventually require penalties. This is true. Players get tired and as a result, the quality chances are far and few between in those two 15-minute periods. Speaking of penalty shootouts, the Bundesliga side is priced at +1100, but then again, so is Madrid. It’s pretty much a crapshoot at that point.

It wouldn’t do to blow all one’s money on Dortmund. They are the underdogs for a reason. But if someone wants to have a bit of fun, they’re an interesting team to consider. There are always two sides to every coin. Maybe few people are expecting them to win, but one never knows when that can serve as fire for a side that has already done more than enough to belong among Europe’s giants and maybe, just maybe, win the franchise’s second Champions League since 1997.