England vs. Netherlands: Euro 2024 Semifinal Odds, Prediction

Jordan Ramsay
July 9, 2024

England took a nerve-racking route through their quarterfinal matchup against Switzerland, tying the match 1-1 in the 80th minute before winning on penalties. The Netherlands faced Turkey in the quarters, winning 2-1 thanks to an own-goal in the 76th minute.

England opened as a +160 favourite to win in regulation on the Euro 2024 odds, while a tie at the end of regulation is +180 and a Netherlands win is +210.

England vs. Netherlands Betting Odds

History isn’t on England’s side in this one as the Three Lions’ 27 per cent win rate against the Netherlands is the second-lowest of any nation they have faced more than 20 times. The Oranje won 3-1 after extra time the last time these teams met in the 2019 UEFA Nations League semifinals and England has just one win against the Netherlands in the last nine meetings across all competitions.

England is No. 5 in the FIFA World Rankings, but they have never won a European Championship, although they were runners-up last tournament. No. 7 ranked Netherlands won the Euros in 1988, the last time the competition was hosted by Germany, and they bowed out in the Round of 16 in 2021.

For the first time all tournament, England is no longer the tournament favourite. The Three Lions are +250 to win the tournament on the Euro 2024 futures board, trailing Spain at +190. The Netherlands have the longest odds of the four remaining teams at +450.

The winner of this match will face the winner of the other semifinal featuring Spain and France, with the final set for July 14 in Berlin. Unlike the Copa America, there is no third-place match at the Euros.

If you’re looking for a player prop for this match, you should definitely consider Harry Kane as an anytime goalscorer at +165. Kane thrives in the knockout stage, scoring six goals in his last seven knockout stage matches. He had four goals in the knockout round of the Euros in 2021 and he scored two more in the Round of 16 and the quarterfinals at the World Cup in 2022.

England

Gareth Southgate’s side is rapidly growing a reputation as a team that comes up just short in major tournaments. England has reached the semis in three of their last four major tournaments, but haven’t won a major international tournament since the 1966 World Cup. The Three Lions barely squeaked into the Euro 2024 semifinal, with Bukayo Saka’s late goal sending the match to extra time and eventually penalties. England survived by converting all five penalties. It was the second straight close call after Jude Bellingham and Kane’s injury time goals saved the day in the Round of 16 against Slovakia.

Left-back Luke Shaw missed the first four matches of the tournament with a hamstring injury, but logged 42 minutes as a substitute in the quarterfinals. The Manchester United defender is a major piece of England’s back-end and it would be a big boost to the lineup if he is inserted into the starting XI on Wednesday. The only other injury concern is Kane, after he was taken off during extra time last weekend. Kane, who has a record five career goals in the European Championship knockout round, was reportedly dealing with cramping in the quarterfinal and it shouldn’t be an issue against the Netherlands.

Netherlands

Just like England, the Dutch needed a comeback in the quarterfinals to advance last weekend. Trailing by a goal in the second half, Stefan de Vrij levelled the match in the 70th minute before Cody Gakpo forced an own goal from Turkey’s Mert Muldur. The Netherlands have benefitted from an arguably weaker draw after finishing Group D in third place and nearly missing the knockout stage. Outside of a 0-0 group stage draw against France, the Oranje have faced weaker opponents in Poland and Austria in the group stage, Romania in the Round of 16 and Turkey in the quarterfinals.

Wout Weghorst was a halftime substitution for the Netherlands against Turkey and completely changed the momentum of the match as he made a compelling case to be promoted to the starting XI. However, a more impactful role on the bench for Weghorst is more likely as Ronald Koeman seems unlikely to change his starters. It’s also worth keeping in mind that either Gakpo or Memphis Depay have been directly involved in 63.5 per cent of the Netherlands’ goal attempts this tournament, including six of their nine goals. Both players are +290 anytime goalscorers on Wednesday.