Croatia vs. Belgium Prediction: 2022 World Cup Betting Odds

Daniel Coyle
November 29, 2022

Croatia sit perched atop the Group F table after thrashing Canada 4-1, and have now earned at least a point in 12 of 14 World Cup contests since 2014. Belgium find themselves flirting with elimination after falling 2-0 to Morocco on Sunday, and will likely need a victory on Thursday to advance to the round of 16 for the fourth time in as many tournament appearances.

Thursday’s clash are pegged as a virtual pick ‘em with Croatia listed as a +158 bet and Belgium sporting +159 odds. The odds of this match ending in a draw sit at +231, with the total favoured to go UNDER 2.5 at -126.

Croatia vs. Belgium Betting Analysis

Belgium +135
Draw +230
Croatia +195

Thursday morning’s matchup at Ahmad bin Ali Stadium marks the first ever World Cup meeting between these teams, and their first clash in non-friendly play since 2013. Belgium are unbeaten in their three head-to-head non-friendly meetings, capped by a 2-1 win in 2014 UEFA World Cup qualifying. Croatia have failed to score more than one goal in five matchups after outscoring Belgium by a 5-1 margin during a 2-1-0 run across all competitions. Overall, the total has gone UNDER 2.5 in three of their past four tilts.

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Croatia

After being frustrated by a stingy Moroccan defence in scoreless draw with the Atlas Lions to open the tournament, Croatia finally found their footing in last weekend’s rout of Canada. The Blazers spotted Canada an early lead, with Alphonso Davies scoring Canada’s first ever goal in World Cup play. But fueled by some off-colour comments by Canadian head coach John Herdman and no shortage of experience in overcoming early deficits, the Blazers steadily took control, particularly after halftime, on their way to their second biggest win in their history at this tournament. Midfielder Andrej Kramarić led the charge with two goals against Canada, and has now potted three goals in his past three outings with the national team. Ivan Perisic contributed a pair of assists, and the midfielder has now tallied five goals and six assists in non-friendly play since the start of Euro 2020.

Belgium

Now faced with the prospect of elimination at the group stage for the first time since the 1998 World Cup, Belgium must find ways their recent struggles to generate offence. With Sunday’s 2-0 loss to Morocco, the Red Devils have now mustered just two total goals over a four-match span that features just one victory, their narrow 1-0 win over Canada to open the group stage. The limited availability of Romelo Lukaku has not helped matters. The man who has scored each of Belgium’s past three goals when facing Croatia saw his first action since late October when he subbed into Sunday’s clash with Morocco in the 81^st minute. Lukaku has scored nine times over his past 11 appearances with the national side, but has been plagued by an array of injuries, and has potted just one goal in his past five overall club and international appearances.