Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid Champions League Preview and Prediction
We’ve reached the Champions League quarterfinals, and I nailed my best bet in Atalanta vs. Borussia Dortmund in the Round of 16. Although three of the remaining teams are Spanish, two of them will face off on Wednesday. Barcelona will host Atlético Madrid at Camp Nou, as the two teams will face off for the second time in five days and for the fifth time since December. The Catalans secured a 2-1 road victory this past Saturday in La Liga thanks to a goal from Robert Lewandowski in the 87th minute.
Now, they will try to further cement their revenge against Diego Simeone’s squad after Atlético knocked Barcelona out of the Copa del Rey at the start of March. There are multiple angles to look at for this match, so let’s dive in.
Barcelona vs. Atlético Madrid Champions League Odds and Betting Trends
Barcelona are the -185 favourites on the three-way moneyline, while Atlético is a +400 underdog, and the draw has an identical +400 price. The Catalans are also the -270 favourites to advance to the semifinals, and Los Colchoneros are +210 dogs on the Champions League odds. The Over/Under for Wednesday’s opening leg is 3.5; the Over has +100 odds, and the Under sits at -125.
The last time these squads faced off in the UCL was in the 2015/16 quarterfinals, which Atlético won 3-2 over two legs. However, they’re in a funk recently and have lost three consecutive matches in all competitions, their worst run since December 2021. Additionally, Barcelona has won 10 of the last 13 head-to-head meetings (10-1-2) in all competitions and is unbeaten in the last 25 meetings at Camp Nou since February 2006. Hansi Flick’s squad is red-hot right now, too; they’ve gone 8-1-1 in their last 10 games and should roll again on Wednesday.
Barcelona
Barcelona took another step towards winning La Liga this past weekend, thanks to their late-game winning goal from Lewandowski. This win, combined with Real Madrid’s last-minute 2-1 defeat at Real Mallorca, has increased Barca’s lead to seven points with just eight points to go. Hansi Flick’s side is dangerous from so many angles, and Saturday’s win showed their depth. Marcus Rashford scored in the first half before subbing off in the 79th minute, and his replacement scored the game-winner eight minutes later. It marked the Polish international’s 12th goal in all competitions, and extended his lead as the club’s top goal scorer per 90 minutes (0.90).
Although Lewandowski has 12 goals, Barcelona has seven players with at least five goals and 10+ goals and assists this season. Lamine Yamal (14 goals and nine assists) is always a threat to score (+125), and the Catalans have won 19 straight games at home, averaging 3.47 goals per game. Their latest home win against Rayo Vallecano was their only win during this stretch in which they scored fewer than two goals. These two squads are headed in opposite directions, and I can only see this game ending one way.
Atlético Madrid
Atlético is in a complete rut, and I’m not sure they’ll get out of it on Wednesday. Diego Simeone’s side has dropped three straight games for the first time in over five years and has just one win in their last six away matches. Although two of their three latest defeats came against Barcelona and Real Madrid, they also fell 3-2 at Tottenham, which was Spurs’ only win in their last 10 matches. The biggest issue for Madrid has been their defence. They’ve recorded just two shutouts in the 12 games following their 4-0 victory over Barcelona in the Copa del Rey, allowing 2+ goals nine times. If they allow two or more on Wednesday, I can’t see them winning this game.
Although their defence has been their latest weakness, the bigger issue is that they lack scoring options. Only Julián Álvarez (12), Giuliano Simeone (10), and Alexander Sørloth (10) have 10+ goals and assists this season in all competitions. I expect Madrid to take a more conservative approach to this game, especially because they’re winless in their last six UCL knockout stage away competitions (one draw and five losses).
Champions League Prediction: Who Will Win Barcelona vs. Atlético Madrid?
Everything points to a Barcelona victory in this one, and I expect them to do it in fashion. Seven of the last 10 meetings between these squads have featured at least three goals, and 17 of their 19 wins during their unbeaten home streak have featured three goals or more. Give me Barcelona to win big 3-0 and deal Atletico its fourth straight defeat.