2018 World Cup Soccer: Outright Odds & Predictions

Payton Matthews
June 5, 2018

Usually after the NBA Finals end, North American bettors are in a dead period – other than the CFL – until the NFL season gets going. That’s not the case this summer with the World Cup from Russia. It’s easily the biggest event in the world. A World Cup dwarfs a Super Bowl or NCAA Tournament in terms of worldwide betting action overall. Here’s a look at some Sports Interaction outright odds for the event.

World Cup Odds and Betting Analysis

Soccer is, after all, the world’s game. Unfortunately, North America isn’t represented much in 2018. Mexico will be there, but the United States didn’t qualify after one of the biggest upsets in recent soccer history in an October 2017 loss at Trinidad & Tobago. The Americans had reached the World Cup for seven straight tournaments. Canada has just once: in 1986, and it lost all three group-stage matches.

The tournament starts June 14 with host Russia taking on Saudi Arabia – the host country automatically qualifies and generally has a huge advantage. However, the Russians aren’t a major threat, ranked just 66^th in the world and +4100 to win the World Cup. The knock-out phase, or Round of 16, begins on June 30. The final in July 15 in Moscow. It’s the first time Russia has hosted the World Cup.

World Cup Favourites

There have been 20 World Cups but only eight countries have won it. The usual suspects are Sports Interaction favourites this year, led by defending champion Germany at +403. The Germans edged Argentina 1-0 in extra time in Brazil four years ago – after Germany destroyed the Brazilians 7-1 in the semifinals in one of the most surprising results in tournament history. It was Germany’s fourth World Cup title and first since 1990. It became the first European team to win the trophy in South America. Germany is also the +280 leader to finish as the top European country in 2018. It was a dominant 10-0 in qualifying, outscoring opponents 43-4.

Brazil, with mega-talents such as Neymar (assuming full health off ankle injury), Philippe Coutinho, Gabriel Jesus and Roberto Firmino, is a +400 second-favourite and has won the World Cup a record five times, last in 2002. Brazil is a heavy -400 favourite to win Group E, which also includes the Swiss, Serbia and Costa Rica. The Brazilians are +100 to finish as the top South American country, just ahead of rival Argentina (+187).

The Argentines, led by five-time world player of the year Lionel Messi, are +900 to win their third World Cup and first since 1986. It’s the only major trophy missing from Messi’s resume, and he’ll never be on the level of a Diego Maradona in his home country without a World Cup.

France is +549 to win its second World Cup; it won in 1998 when it hosted. The French reached the final of the 2016 European Championships but lost to Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portuguese side. Portugal is +2300 to complete the Euro/World Cup double. Spain (+611) won Euro 2008, the 2010 World Cup and then Euro 2012.

Mexico is +9100 to win its first World Cup but has the misfortune of playing in Group F with Germany (-286) as well as a good Sweden team (+625) and underrated South Korea (+1600). Could be tough for the Mexicans simply to reach the knock-out stage.