St. Louis City SC vs. Toronto FC MLS Betting Odds, Picks: Daniel Salloi, Josh Sargent leading TFC attack
St. Louis City SC host Toronto FC at Energizer Park on Saturday, and the two clubs arrive from very different directions.
The hosts sit fifth in the Western Conference at 41 points (11-8-6), fresh off putting four goals past Minnesota United, while Toronto, buried near the bottom of the Eastern Conference table at 29 points (6-7-11), are riding the best form of their season.
They were unbeaten in seven straight; however, they fell to Orlando this past week.
The two sides have already met once this year, with City edging a 1-0 road win back in July, and this rematch carries plenty of intrigue given how differently both teams are trending, so let’s get into my St. Louis City SC vs. Toronto FC preview.
St. Louis City SC vs. Toronto FC MLS Odds and Betting Trends
The market makes City clear favourites on home turf. As of now, St. Louis City SC are around -160 on the three-way moneyline, the draw sits near +320, and Toronto are priced around +340 as underdogs. The Over/Under sits at 3.5 goals on the MLS odds, with the Over juiced up to +120, while the Under carries -165 odds.
That’s a fair number for two teams that haven’t been shy about scoring or conceding lately. City have put up 15 goals in their last five matches, while Toronto recently shared eight goals with Chicago Fire in a wide-open result of their own.
St. Louis City SC
Simon Becher leads the line for City with seven goals and 24 shots on target, giving first-year head coach Yoann Damet a clear focal point up top, while Daniel Edelman has quietly been the engine behind the attack, creating 21 chances from midfield. Roman Burki has anchored things at the other end, and the underlying numbers back up the eye test: City rank comfortably ahead of Toronto in expected goals created and expected goals conceded this season.
The concern for City is consistency rather than talent. A club chasing its first playoff appearance in franchise history under a rookie MLS head coach has had its share of uneven stretches, and a home date against a Toronto side playing with real confidence right now is no gimme, even with the form guide and the table both favouring St. Louis.
Toronto FC
Toronto’s turnaround under Robin Fraser has been built on resilience rather than dominance and last Wednesday’s win over Nashville was the clearest example yet. Niklas Dorsch’s early own goal put Toronto in an early hole, but Emilio Aristizabal’s stoppage-time strike sealed the win. Daniel Salloi and Josh Sargent share the team lead with seven goals apiece and Salloi’s 29 chances created are a team high, giving Toronto’s attack real teeth even without much depth behind that front two.
Djordje Mihailovic continues to pull the strings in midfield after his midseason arrival last year. Toronto’s concern is that most of their unbeaten run has come at home and against sides either off their game or missing key pieces. They just fell to Orlando by three on the road, and a road trip to face a St. Louis team they already lost to this season is a genuine step up in difficulty.
MLS Prediction: Who Will Win St. Louis City SC vs. Toronto FC?
Best bet: Simon Becher anytime goalscorer (+115)
City’s leading scorer gets a Toronto defence that’s been generous for much of the season, and Becher’s shot volume, 24 shots on target already, gives him a real chance to add to his tally in front of a home crowd. St. Louis also has extra motivation here after already needing a narrow 1-0 win to beat this Toronto side back in July, and I expect a more assertive approach from the home side this time around.
Final score prediction: St. Louis City SC 2 | Toronto FC 1