2024 Paris Olympic Basketball Odds and Prediction
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Edgar Chaput
Has it already been four years since the Tokyo Olympics? No, it has only been three years, but that was a trick question. In any case, the world’s greatest athletes converge in the French capital later this week for the start of the 2024 Olympic Games.
Among the competitions that will get traditional sports fans excited is basketball. After all, given the players participating, Olympic basketball is like an NBA Cup tournament, only country-themed. With that in mind, we preview the competition by looking at the teams and their groups, with predictions as to who will leave Paris with glorious, Olympian medals.
Don’t forget to check out our Olympic basketball odds for men, women, and even the 3-versus-3 competition.
Paris 2024 Men’s Basketball Tournament Set-Up
The 2024 Paris Games welcome 12 nations to the men’s basketball tournament. Each continent is represented, with some bringing more squads than others. The dozen squads will be split into three divisions – or groups – of four teams each. Each team plays its group rivals once for a total of three matches, much like in international soccer tournaments.
The top two sides of each group make it to the quarterfinals in addition to the two best third-place teams. In other words, eight squads earn a place in the single-elimination knockout rounds, with four others eliminated from the competition. From that point onwards, there is a draw to determine who plays who in the quarterfinals. FIBA rules will help determine the rankings of the eight sides, but it essentially boils down to a scenario similar to the NBA playoffs, with higher ranked sides facing lower-ranked ones.
It gets a bit more complicated insofar as the eight survining teams will be paired in four pots and drawn against teams from lower pots. For example, the first and second placed teams will be in their own pot and drawn against the teams who finished seventh and eighth.
The quarterfinals are followed by the semis, then a bronze medal and gold medal game scheduled for Saturday, August 10th.
Olympic Basketball Group Previews
Group A: Australia, Spain, Greece, Canada
This is the group that will attract the most attention in our neck of the woods given Canada’s inclusion.
Currently, the Canadians are -181 favourites to top Group A, followed by Greece at +400, and Australia at +600, with Spain lagging in last place at +900.
Canada is stacked with players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and RJ Barrett, but won’t necessarily have an easy go of it. Australia could prove to be a challenge. The Boomers are filled with talented current and former NBA players. Josh Giddey and Dyson Daniels give the squad youthful energy alongside seasoned veterans like Dante Exum and Joe Ingles. Is Australia the best team in the group? Probably not, but it wouldn’t do to take them lightly.
The biggest question mark is Greece. Not because they have a stellar lineup from top to bottom. It’s mostly comprised of perfectly fine players carving their names in European leagues. The X-factor here is Giannis Antetokounmpo. What can the Greek Freak get out of his teammates? Worst case scenario: how far can he carry it by himself?
Spain is largely unknown to neutral observers or those fans who mostly just watch the NBA. Other than Santi Aldama (Memphis Grizzlies) and Usman Garuba (Golden State Warriors), there is no NBA experience here.
That’s not to say it doesn’t make them a good team, but when one looks at a roster like Canada’s, draped with players who tussle in the world’s best league, it puts sides like Greece and Spain behind the eight ball.
Group Result: Canada, Australia, Greece make it out.
Group B: Brazil, Japan, Germany, France
This is arguably the most unpredictable group. Everyone has some NBA experience, but nobody has a ton.
The standout is France. Even though not everyone on the roster develops in the NBA, the fact that they have Rudy Gobert, Victor Wembenyama, and Nicola Batum makes them formidable. It comes as no surprise that they are favoured to win the group at -222.
France is followed closely by Germany. It’s not a country that immediately comes to mind when one thinks about great basketball nations but consider that they have Dennis Schroder and Orlando Magic’s twin towers, Moritz and Franz Wagner. The “Vagner boys”, as Shaquille O’Neal would put it, had a fantastic 2023-24 season.
Brazil and Japan round out Group B with price tags of +2200 and +4000 to it. Those seem a little bit low, especially Japan, who have Rui Hachimura and Yuta Watanabe.
Group B Result: France, Germany, Japan make it out.
Group C: Puerto Rico, South Sudan, Serbia, United States
Now for something completely different: the most predictable group. With all due respect to Puerto Rico, Serbia, and South Sudan, nobody is stopping the United States. Why bother betting on them given the -1428 price tag to win the group? Not only are they an amazing team with Kevin Durant and Anthony Edwards, LeBron James was named the country’s flag bearer for the opening ceremony on July 26th.
Serbia is this division’s Greece. It doesn’t have a lot of world-beating talent except, of course, for the three-time NBA MVP and 2023 champion Nikola Jokic. The man can do it all and often does. Will that be enough to take his country deep into the tournament? They’re +700 to win the group.
South Sudan and Puerto Rico and both far behind at +4000 and +5000, respectively. Arguably the most notable name on Sudan’s roster is assistant coach Luol Deng. Then again, they gave the Americans fits in a recent tune-up game. The lone Puerto Rican NBA fans can pick out is New Orleans Pelicans’ Jose Alvarado.
Group C Result: United States and Serbia make it out.
Medal Winners Prediction
Asking who will win the gold medal in men’s Olympic basketball is a bit like asking who will win a Copa America soccer competition involving Argentina.
Expectations be damned. Anything less than gold for the United States would be deemed a catastrophe. All the chatter of “it might be tougher because other countries play better these days” doesn’t change the fact that the Americans are just better at this sport than everybody else.
The real question is who takes home silver and bronze? Canada has a tremendous opportunity here. The country has produced so many fine players that not playing in the gold medal game could be seen as a letdown.
Australia, France, and Serbia are likely to battle for honours as well.
The medal ranking will look like gold for the United States, silver for Canada, and bronze for Australia.