Why Connor Bedard Will Not Win the Calder Trophy

Picked number one overall in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, North Vancouverite Connor Bedard arrives in the Windy City with a breeze of optimism. The excitement surrounding Bedard is palpable and understandable. But let’s not get too excited. There is no guarantee that Connor Bedard will win the Calder Trophy this year, which is what the word on the street wants people to think.

In fact, he won’t win the Calder Trophy even though he is set as a big -135 favourite.

Before we go further, check out our NHL futures for some long-term hockey action.

Chicago Blackhawks Rookie Phenom Connor Bedard

Every so often a new number one overall draftee arrives in the NHL who sparks incredible optimism in a fanbase. A player so talented and skillful that expectations start to outweigh reality. It isn’t that those players aren’t good. They are. In fact, they’re excellent. The issue stems from the fact that they’re joining a club that, at the time, is experiencing a serious case of the doldrums.

Connor Bedard is an exceptional talent. Consider what he accomplished with the Regina Pats the past two seasons. For 2021-2022, in 62 contests he tallied 51 goals and 49 assists for an incredible 100 points. He one-upped himself in 2022-2023, netting 71 goals and adding 72 helpers in only 57 contests for a spellbinding 143 points. Rarely do we witness points tallies like that.

Surely he can make the Blackhawks a better team and in the process win the Calder Trophy, yes?

The Blackhawks are Awful

The point isn’t to rub any salt into old wounds. Chicago is a terrific sports town and its clubs are supported by faithful, ardent fanbases. That said, the reality is that Connor Bedard is joining one of the worst teams in the NHL, arguably the very worst.

The club has not participated in postseason hockey since even before the pandemic. Furthermore, performances on the ice have regressed.

In 2018-2019 they finished 36-34-12 for 84 points.

In 2019-2020 they finished 32-30-8 for 72 points

In 2020-2021 they went 24-25-7 for 555 points in 56 games and a realigned division.

In 2021-2022 they went 28-42-12 for 68 points.

In 2022-2023 they went 26-49-7 for 59 points.

That’s right, 59 points. Only three clubs completed the year with fewer than 60 points and the Hawks were one of them. Their minus 97 goal differential was third-worst league-wide. Only seven teams coughed up 300 goals or more. Chicago was one of them.

The best goalie was Alex Stalock, who partook in 27 matches, posting a 9-15-2 record, a 3.01 GAA and .908 save percentage. So the team’s best chance was having the guy in net who, on average, put in the sort of performance that “only” four goals were necessary to win the game.

Bedard Needs Help to be Productive

The simple fact of the matter is that in order to be productive, he needs help. Short of rushing up and down the ice in displays of brilliant solo hockey every single game and on every single shift, Bedard requires teammates to build up the play.

Who are the main assist players on the roster? The guy who tallied the most points isn’t there anymore (Max Domi). Andreas Athanasiou had 20. Seth Jones had 25. So did newly acquired Corey Perry in Anaheim, although Perry is starting to have a lot of mileage on those legs. The addition of Taylor Hall could provide something of a boost, but that remains to be seen.

Who provided support last season on the Regina Pats? Alexander Suzdalev (33 goals, 48 assists), Stanislav Svozil (67 assists), Tanner Howe (36 goals, 49 assists). Say what one will about the discrepancies between an NHL club and a team from a lower league, but having good players around a star still matters.

Connor Bedard’s Calder Trophy Rivals

None of the other first round draft picks from this past summer had the sort of season that Bedard accomplished. Leo Carlsson, Adam Fantilli, William Smith, Matvei Michkov, etc.  All have been picked for their skill set and potential, just like any other highly valued prospect, but Bedard was in a class of his own.

That said, some rookies are landing in better situations than Connor Bedard. Not considerably better, but at least ones where the transition from minor league to the pros may occur with better fluidity. Both Dalivor Dvorsky and Dmitriy Simashev are in St. Louis and Arizona, respectively. Both teams had vastly superior campaigns compared to Chicago. Arizona may have only compiled 70 points but they lost 14 games either in overtime or in a shootout. That’s an incredibly high number (tied for third in the NHL last year).

William Smith in San Jose has slightly superior support with guys like Logan Couture (injured at the moment), Tomas Hertl, and Alexander Barabanov. Even Adam Fintilli, who landed in Columbus – definitely not a very good team – has Johnny Gaudreau and Patrick Laine to help him out.

Former Calder Trophy Winners

It should also be noted that not all number one overall picks win the Calder. Matty Beniers (second), Moritz Seider (sixth), Krill Kaprizov (13th), and Cale Makar (fourth) are all recent winners chosen after the first overall pick. Makar even landed in a pretty decent team at the time (Colorado Avalanche). Beniers arrived in a second-year expansion squad (Seattle Kraken) with a good nucleus that just needed a season to jell together before making a playoff push. Is that the case at all in Chicago? It could be, but there aren’t many signs suggesting it is.

These are all reasons to keep in mind when taking your cheque to the bank about Bedard winning the Calder before the first puck has been dropped. Fair warning: that cheque could bounce.