Why a Canadian Team Will Win the Stanley Cup This Season

It’s same story every October. 1993, when the Montreal Canadiens defeated the Los Angeles Kings 4-1 in the Stanley Cup Finals, was the last time any Canadian club won it all in the National Hockey. Fans, pundits, social media keep asking every year if the script will change, that is, if anyone among the Maple Leafs, Oilers, Jets, Canucks, Senators, Flames, and Canadiens can break the trend of United States-based franchises winning it all.

Stay hopeful, Canadian supporters. This is the year when it can really happen.

While we’re at it, check out our NHL odds for plenty of hockey action.

Canadian Team Odds

Of course, it starts with the odds. According to our number crunching, here is how each Canadian-based franchise stacks as far as Stanley Cup winning chances go.

1. Toronto Maple Leafs at +1000

2. Edmonton Oilers at +1000

3. Calgary Flames +3000

4. Ottawa Senators at +4000

5. Winnipeg Jets at +5000

6. Vancouver Canucks +5000

7. Montreal Canadiens at +15000

Sorry, Montreal, but it looks as though 2023-2024 might be another very long year.

To no one’s surprise, Toronto and Edmonton have the best odds of the bunch. They were the two best Canadian clubs last year at the end of the regular season, made it the furthest into the playoffs (the conference semi-finals) and have been the most consistently good several campaigns in a row.

The American Competition

There’s no point in just looking at the odds for the teams based north of the border. There are 25 other clubs, all based in the U.S., most of whom do better on an annual basis. The defending champion Vegas Golden Knights do not have the highest odds. They’re sixth at +1200. Last year’s President Trophy winning side the Boston Bruins are seventh at +1400. Toronto and Edmonton are in fact third and fourth overall, respectively.

The Colorado Avalanche, Stanley Cup winners two seasons ago, top the list at +900, followed by the Carolina Hurricanes at +900. Just behind Edmonton are the New Jersey Devils, also at +1000.

Calgary Flames: Intriguing Bet

The most curious bet of the bunch is the Calgary Flames. For a team that missed the postseason last year and at times looked miserable on the bench (and apparently was miserable), +3000 isn’t a disaster. The Minnesota Wild share those numbers and they got into the postseason in 2022-2023!

Why might that be? Calgary has been the definition of a topsy turvy franchise for a handful of years. The year just before the pandemic hit, 2018-2019, they finished first in the Western Conference. That’s right, five years ago the road to the Stanley Cup Finals in the West went through the Stampede.  A lack of depth and experience resulted in a shock first round elimination to Colorado.

That was followed by a disappointing 2019-2020 and 2020-2021, but guess what. The Flames won the Pacific in 2021-2022, finished third in the Western Conference and won at least the first round of the playoffs before seeing their quest end against the worst opponent imaginable, the Edmonton Oilers.

So, Calgary goes through these ebbs and flows of very strong and very poor seasons. Last season was poor, and many structural changes happened that suggest 2023-2024 will be a bounce-back season. Ryan Huska is now the coach. Jonathan Huberdeau is expected to play more freely this season, Andrew Mangiapane is a solid contributor, Elias Lindholm and Rasmus Andersson are franchise stalwarts, and Jacob Markstrom has finished each of his three seasons in Calgary with a GAA under 3.00.

It’s not a bad lineup by any stretch of the imagination and they have players that were on those good 2018-2019 and 2021-2022 squads. They’ve been a part of the franchise when things have rolled favourably. Assuming the Flames won’t be interesting this year is like playing with fire. Calgary could burn you.

Maple Leafs and Oilers as Heavy Hitters

We’re accustomed to this by now. The conversation evolves most seriously around the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers.

Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, Evan Bouchard, Evander Kane, etc. Why would Edmonton not have good odds with those players?

Likewise with the Leafs. Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitchell Marner, John Tavares, etc. Now they’re tougher with someone like Ryan Reaves ready and willing to take and deliver hits.

Professional athletes aren’t so naïve as to think they have forever to win a championship. Both Edmonton and Toronto are aware that the window of opportunity will remain open for only so long.

How can these two clubs, incidentally each from a different conference, get past playoff foes?

Toronto may have the easier route. It’s interesting to note that the Eastern Conference club with the best odds are the Carolina Hurricanes. They are, hear us out, an American version of the Toronto Maple Leafs. A very good club with some excellent players who have strong regular seasons yet it’s never amounted to much in the postseason. The odds suggest this could be their year. But so too do they suggest it could be Toronto’s. Boston has taken a slight dip – even though it’s still a solid squad – and New Jersey is still learning to win, as evidenced by how easily they fell to Carolina in the second round last year. This is a serious, genuine opportunity for the Maple Leafs to show that they are in fact the best team in the Eastern Conference.

The Oilers have the more difficult route despite having the more potent and fireworks-worthy lineup. The last two Stanley Champions, Colorado and Vegas, are not only in the same conference but ended Edmonton’s seasons twice in a row. Almost every year Dallas takes everyone by surprise. They were a Cup finalist in the 2020 bubble playoffs and made it to the West final last year, so they can’t be counted out. The Oilers have, hands down, the most explosive player in the NHL in Connor McDavid. Not only is he great, he makes everyone around him great as well.

But If we go off of rosters, if the Oilers were to play up to their full abilities, from goaltending to defence to offence, they are the best team in the conference. No team is perfect and we aren’t arguing that the Oilers are, but they are the best.

Never Tell Them the Odds

Finally, the NHL and its playoffs are amazing for the surprises that few people ever see coming. The St. Louis, who had never won a championship, were one of the worst teams in the league in January 2019, yet a few months later hoisted the trophy in Game 7 in Boston. After years of playoffs failures, Alex Ovechkin and the Capitals finally got the done in 2018. The Florida Panthers were the second Wild Card team last year and played the final.

You can never count anyone out in the NHL, unless of course they’re officially eliminated. What if Calgary has a bounce-back season? What if Toronto is this year’s Washington Capitals? What if Edmonton plays up to its full potential? Who can stop them? What if…what if Winnipeg, Vancouver, Ottawa, or Montreal make a key trade this winter that provides wind for their sails and changes their momentum? What if one of those four is this year’s St. Louis Blues?

To put it bluntly, streaks do two things. First, they continue. Second, they end. The Blues finally won a Stanley Cup. The Cubs finally won a World Series. Lionel Messi finally won a World Cup. The Detroit Lions can now win games in Green Bay. Things change.

The Canadian Stanley Cup draught is just another sports streak and it can definitely end this season.