Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Game 5 Prediction, NHL Playoff Odds
Brady Tkachuk “didn’t hear no bell” as the Sens captain pumped up the crowd following Saturday’s do-or-die 4-3 overtime win against Toronto. Ottawa has new life, but still trail the series 3-1 ahead of Tuesday’s Game 5 in Toronto.
The Maple Leafs opened as -170 Game 5 favourites on the NHL odds, with the total set at 5.5.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs NHL Betting Odds
This has been one of the closest 3-1 series’ you can imagine, with the last three games decided in overtime. At this point, you have to think Ottawa is channelling the 2021 Montreal Canadiens, who trailed Toronto 3-1 in the first round before successfully completing a comeback en route to an appearance in the Stanley Cup Final.
Oddsmakers still heavily favour the Maple Leafs as they sit at -1400 to win the series on the NHL futures board, with the Senators at +850. For comparison, Toronto began the playoffs at -200 to win the series, while Ottawa was +165.
As much as the Leafs have a history of choking in the first round of the playoffs, your best value at the moment is likely taking them to win in six games at +290. However, if you’re holding out hope (like me) for the Senators to win the next three games, they are +850 to win the series in seven (same as the series line).
Only four teams in NHL history have ever successfully completed a comeback to win a best-of-seven series when trailing 3-0 – the Leafs in 1942, the Islanders in 1975, the Flyers in 2010 and the Kings in 2014.
For those of you banking on seeing something that hasn’t happened in 58 years, Toronto currently has the fourth-shortest odds to win the Stanley Cup at +750. Considering the 3-1 series hole, it’s not surprising to see Ottawa with the longest Cup odds at +15,000.
Ottawa Senators
Ottawa went up 2-0 in the first period of Game 4 for their first multi-goal lead of the series, but they largely hung on for dear life after that as they were outshot 9-1 in the second period and 8-3 in the third. Things looked even worse for the Sens in overtime as they had to kill off a four-minute penalty before Jake Sanderson’s game-winner. Tim Stutzle, David Perron and Shane Pinto scored in regulation.
You have to give Linus Ullmark his flowers for Game 4. Ullmark entered Saturday with both the second-worst goals-against average and save percentage of any goalie in the playoffs, but he was the main reason Ottawa survived the OT double-minor. He finished with 31 saves in the game, including multiple massive efforts in OT. Ullmark has been hot and cold all season, so the Senators are really hoping this is a sign he’s heating up again.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto likely deserved a better fate after outshooting Ottawa 17-4 over the the second and third period of Game 4, but they only have themselves to blame after giving up a power play goal and a shorthanded goal to fall into an 0-2 hole in the first period. John Tavares, Matthew Knies and Oliver Ekman-Larsson had the the Leafs’ goals, while Anthony Stolarz allowed four goals on 21 shots faced in a rare poor outing.
There’s really nothing to panic about right now if you’re a Leafs fan. A better start for Toronto would have ended this series on Saturday, but that hasn’t been a problem overall, with the Leafs opening the scoring in the first three games. Stolarz didn’t have his best outing in Game 4, but he’s still sporting a 2.29 GAA and .902 SV. The game actually broke an 11-game win streak for Stolarz, so chalk it up to a streak that’s bound to end. Overall, Toronto should feel confident heading into Game 5.
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