Ottawa Senators vs. Calgary Flames Prediction, NHL Odds

Andrew Rogers | Updated Mar 07, 2021

matt murray senators

The Senators and Flames have yet to play a close game this season as they prepare for their fifth meeting of the 2020-21 campaign Sunday night in Alberta.

Ottawa
23-28-4-1
AT
March 07, 2021, 9:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary
26-27-2-1
Puckline +1.5 -165
Moneyline +150
Over / Under o +6

28%

Betting Action

72%

Puckline -1.5 +137
Moneyline -180
Over / Under u +6

28%

Betting Action

72%

The Flames evened the season series at two victories apiece with a 7-3 victory on Thursday night, with all four previous outings decided by 3+ goals. And that could make the puck line an attractive proposition for Flames bettors, with the home team a considerable favourite.

Senators vs. Flames 3/7/21 Betting Analysis

Calgary is looking at lower odds this time around despite a one-sided victory in the prior meeting, coming in at -180 (compared to a -210 line for Thursday’s game). The Senators have just three victories in their last 16 games away from Canadian Tire Centre, including a 3-11-0 record this season. And while the Flames are barely above the .500 mark at Scotiabank Saddledome this season, they’ve won four of their last five home meetings with Ottawa.

The betting trends for Sunday’s rematch are quite clear, with 74 percent of Sports Interaction bettors siding with the Flames and 77 percent taking the O6 at -110. The teams have combined for six or more goals in each of their first four meetings this season, averaging a whopping eight goals per game over that stretch. And that has actually run counter to both team’s season-long trends, with Ottawa having gone 11-13-2 O/U and the Flames sitting at 10-12-3.

Ottawa Senators

The Senators certainly have multiple flaws, but the biggest issue through the first 26 games is what’s happening in goal. By many measures, Ottawa netminder Matt Murray has been the biggest bust among NHL puck stoppers; he comes into Sunday with an NHL-worst -18.3 Goals Saved Above Expected (according to MoneyPuck.com), which has led to a Wins Over Expected value of -3.06 – meaning he has cost his team roughly six points in the standings.

Calgary Flames

The second Darryl Sutter Era in Calgary began with the same disappointment that has permeated the Flames’ season so far, as it squandered a pair of leads en route to a 3-2 loss to rival Edmonton on Saturday night. Sutter, who previously coached the Flames in the mid-2000s and led the team to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2004, will be looking to turn things around for a Calgary team that hasn’t put together consecutive victories since Feb. 6-11.

NHL Prediction: Who Will Win Senators vs. Flames?

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