Buffalo Sabres vs. Montreal Canadiens Game 6 Prediction, NHL Playoff Odds

The Canadiens can punch their ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2021 as they lead the Buffalo Sabres 3-2 in their conference semifinal series entering Game 6 on Saturday night at Bell Centre. Montreal is a -175 favourite on the NHL odds with a total of 6.5 goals.

Sabres vs. Canadiens NHL Betting Odds

This series really makes no sense, but that’s the Stanley Cup playoffs for you. Montreal had a chance to take a commanding 3-1 lead at home Tuesday but lost 3-2 to hand home-ice advantage right back to the Atlantic Division champion Sabres. But then Thursday, the Canadiens took it right back with a 6-3 road win. A Game 7, if necessary, would be on Monday in Buffalo. That win shifted the Canadiens from -105 on the series line to -380 and the Sabres from -115 to +300. I think it ends on Saturday.

Buffalo is 1-14 all-time when trailing a best-of-seven series 3-2. It is 11-12 in all Game 6s and 5-5 away. Montreal is 28-3 when leading a series 3-2 and 19-10 at home.

This is the only second-round series still going and some interesting trends via NHL.com. The second round is averaging 6.4 goals per game, which is tied with 1994 conference quarterfinals for the second-highest total in round two of a postseason over the past 32 years. The only higher was the 2023 second round when on average 6.7 goals were scored per game. There have been 42 lead changes in these playoffs, tied for the third most at this stage of a postseason (65 games) since 1992.

Buffalo Sabres

Who starts in net in Game 6 for Buffalo? That’s the clear major question. Coach Lindy Ruff made a goaltending change ahead of Game 4 in benching Alex Lyon for Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, and it worked very well for that game. But UPL allowed five goals on 23 shots Thursday before being replaced by Lyon to begin the third period during the Sabres’ 6-3 loss.

I’d guess it would be back to Lyon on Saturday but he was terrible in his past two starts, allowing nine total goals in losses in Games 3 & 4.

Star Tage Thompson was held without a point Thursday and was minus-3 but leads Buffalo with 11 points in his first-ever playoff appearance. Both he and Josh Doan have at least a point in four straight road playoff games, one shy of the second-longest such streak in team history. The record is eight by Alexei Zhitnik in 1999.

The Sabres won their last game in Montreal in large part to blocking a playoff-high 27 shots. Top blueliner Owen Power should be good to go despite briefly leaving Game 5 in the third period. He was able to return.

Montreal Canadiens

Montreal broke open Game 5 with three goals in the second period of the 6-3 win. The Canadiens have scored at least five goals in each of their three victories against Buffalo. Only six teams in the past 30 years have reached the mark in four or more games within a series.

The Habs can earn a series-clinching win at home on a Saturday for the eighth time in franchise history (6-1 all-time) and for the first time since the 1987 division finals. Nick Suzuki was the No. 1 star of Game 5 with a goal and two helpers. He is tied with blueliner Lane Hutson for the team lead with 12 playoff points. Hutson is the seventh defenceman in team history to record 10 assists in a single postseason.

No question it will be Jakub Dobes in net again. He is the fifth Canadiens rookie goaltender to record at least seven wins in a single postseason. The team record as such is 15 by Patrick Roy in 1986.