NHL Preview: Dallas Stars

Dallas will struggle in the absence of Brad Richards. Charlie Boccanegra reports.

The Dallas Stars lost Brad Richards to a huge UFA contract with the New York Rangers. Last year Dallas missed the playoffs on the final day of the regular season with Richards in the line up – I don’t expect them improve on that because they don’t have a player to replace Richards. Furthermore, they don’t excel at any one particular position on their team with very limited up and coming talent that limits the team’s ability to improve quickly and make up for Richards’ loss.

I cannot see them making the playoffs, tempting though the NHL betting price of 50/1 for the Stars to win the Cup appears. And as it usually requires around 90 points to make the playoffs and that does not seem feasible for the Dallas I would take a strong look at the UNDER on 87.5 regular season points as a good NHL futures bet.

The main reason the Stars will struggle is their below average defense. With no legitimate #1 defender, relying on Stephane Robidas is simply not good enough. Robidas, he is more suited to be a #2 or #3 on a playoff caliber team. Players like Goligoski and newly signed Souray have some offensive upside moving the puck but that doesn’t outweigh how bad they can be in their own zone. Trevor Daley is really the only solid shut down defender, while Nicklas Grossman is a work in progress.

Dallas doesn’t play a physical enough style of defense to shut down opposing Western Conference teams. Goalie Kari Lehtonen has shown signs of good play but never the consistently excellent level which is required to get the Stars into the post season. In addition, he’s faced his fair share of injuries throughout his career, so don’t be shocked to see him get hurt and force the Stars into starting mediocre back up Andrew Raycroft in more games then they would like.

Offensively, Dallas has a few good pieces in youngsters Jamie Benn and Lou Ericksson, and solid veterans Brenden Morrow and Mike Ribeiro. The problem is none of them are all-star caliber forwards that can carry a team on their back and get over 80 points.

Newly acquired forward Michael Ryder and quality two-way player Steve Ott round out the top six forwards. After that don’t expect much scoring from the bottom six forwards which is comprised of predominantly grinders and washed up over the hill scoring forwards that don’t bring much to the ice anymore. Radek Dvorak, take a bow.

The Stars are a team I will look to consistently fade throughout the course of the season. In particular when they are at home because the oddsmakers will set numbers that over value a non-existent home ice advantage. Playing in the extremely difficult Pacific Division really doesn’t do the Stars any favors either.