USA vs. Germany Men’s Olympic Hockey: Preliminary Preview Odds and Prediction
Team USA is looking to move to 3-0 in the 2026 Olympic men’s ice hockey tournament on Sunday when they take on Team Germany. The Americans have defeated Latvia 5-1 and Denmark 6-3, and are looking to end Group play with another convincing win over the Germans.
After picking up a 3-1 win over Denmark on Thursday, Team Germany enters this contest coming off a disappointing 4-3 loss to Latvia on Saturday. The Americans are heavily favoured to pick up another victory, but is Team Germany capable of pulling off the upset?
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USA vs. Germany Olympic men’s ice hockey odds and betting trends
Team USA’s impressive 2-0 start has them well-positioned in the gold medal odds boards. With odds of +200, the Americans trail only Canada’s odds of -130 to win the tournament.
Conversely, Germany’s underwhelming start has led to their gold medal odds getting longer. The Germans began the tournament with odds of +5000 to win it all, but those odds have increased to +8000 entering today’s matchup against the Americans.
Given the two very different tournaments these teams have seen so far, it’s not surprising to see Team USA listed as heavy favourites. The Americans have odds of -800 on the moneyline, while the Germans have odds of +550 to pull off a major upset. When it comes to the puckline, USA -3.5 has odds of +124, while Germany +3.5 carries a -125 price. The total is 6.5 with the Over carrying -125 odds, and the Under sits at +105.
USA
Team USA put on another offensive show on Saturday against Denmark. In a 6-3 victory, six different skaters scored goals for the Americans. In addition, 13 different skaters found the score sheet and collected at least one point. Team USA trailed 2-1 at the first intermission, but their elite offensive scoring depth proved to be too much for Denmark to handle.
The Team USA offence figures to be in line for another strong showing in this matchup against Germany. On Saturday, the Germans allowed four goals to a Latvia team that is severely limited offensively. Despite allowing just a single goal to Denmark in the opener, Germany still gave up plenty of Grade A scoring chances and were outshot 38-26. Auston Matthews and company should be ready to roll.
Jeremy Swayman put forth a relatively rough outing in net against Denmark, which means it’s likely that Team USA head coach Mike Sullivan goes back to Connor Hellebuyck between the pipes for this matchup. Hellebuyck was strong in the opener against Latvia, as he allowed just one goal on 18 shots. Aside from Leon Draisaitl and Tim Stutzle, Team Germany doesn’t possess many scoring threats, so Hellebuyck seems to have a favourable matchup on his hands.
Germany
As previously mentioned, Germany’s performance in this tournament thus far has been fairly underwhelming. The power play has been ineffective, as Germany is one for six on the man advantage, and their power play percentage of 16.7 per cent is the second-worst mark in the tournament.
The Germans haven’t been sound defensively, and the goaltending has been a major cause for concern. That is not exactly a winning formula. Goaltender Philipp Grubauer had a rough day against Latvia, and he may be called upon to start on back-to-back days. That’s a tough ask when facing any team, but especially when facing a team as loaded offensively as Team USA.
Olympics Prediction: Who will win USA vs. Germany?
Draisaitl and Stutzle are simply being asked to do too much. They are effective playmakers, but Team Germany is vastly out-classed offensively in this matchup. Along with four lines capable of scoring at any moment, Team USA’s elite group of offensive-defensemen should be able to make life very difficult for Team Germany in this one. Draisaitl and Stutzle may find some success, but they’ll need a lot more help if Germany is going to pull off the upset. I don’t think they will get it.
I expect Team USA to win this matchup by a score of 4-2.