NHL Odds: Will Auston Matthews score 70 goals this season?
Auston Matthews was dominant in Toronto’s 4-3 win over Calgary on Thursday. The Leafs sniper had a four-point night, scoring his fourth hat trick of the season. Matthews is not only closing in on his third career Rocket Richard trophy, he’s also on pace to have the first 70-goal season since Alex Mogilny and Teemu Selanne each scored 76 goals in 1992-93.
So, will Matthews score 70 goals this season?
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Auston Matthews
Matthews leads the NHL with 37 goals in 42 games, which puts him on pace to score 72 this season. In seven previous seasons, Matthews has never scored less than 34 goals, an impressive stat given the two COVID-shortened seasons. He’s also the highest scoring player in the NHL since his rookie season in 2016-17.
NHL goal leaders since 2016-17
| Players | Team | Games Played | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | Toronto Maple Leafs | 555 | 362 |
| Alex Ovechkin | Washington Capitals | 580 | 324 |
| Leon Draisaitl | Edmonton Oilers | 603 | 324 |
| David Pastrnak | Boston Bruins | 572 | 323 |
| Connor McDavid | Edmonton Oilers | 596 | 316 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | Colorado Avalanche | 567 | 273 |
| Brayden Point | Tampa Bay Lightning | 574 | 261 |
| Mikko Rantanen | Colorado Avalanche | 557 | 260 |
| Sidney Crosby | Pittsburgh Penguins | 559 | 251 |
| Sebastian Aho | Carolina Hurricanes | 593 | 251 |
Matthews has a fairly big separation in the goal race this season as one of only two players to hit the 30-goal mark, so far, along with Florida’s Sam Reinhart.
NHL goal leaders in 2023-24
| Player | Team | Goals |
|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | Toronto Maple Leafs | 37 |
| Sam Reinhart | Florida Panthers | 33 |
| David Pastrnak | Boston Bruins | 29 |
| Nikita Kucherov | Tampa Bay Lightning | 28 |
| Artemi Panarin | New York Rangers | 27 |
| Brock Boeser | Vancouver Canucks | 27 |
| Zach Hyman | Edmonton Oilers | 27 |
| Sidney Crosby | Pittsburgh Penguins | 26 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | Colorado Avalanche | 24 |
| Elias Pettersson | Vancouver Canucks | 24 |
Matthews, who has only missed one game this season, will obviously need to stay healthy to reach 70 goals. That’s a little concerning as he’s dealt with injury issues in the past and his rookie year was the only season he played all 82 games. Another factor to consider is the intensity in games near the end of the season. With playoff spots and positioning on the line, teams generally play more structured defensively and goals are harder to come by.
Auston Matthews career
| Season | Games Played | Goals | Goals Per Game Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 82 | 40 | 0.49 |
| 2017-18 | 62 | 34 | 0.55 |
| 2018-19 | 68 | 37 | 0.54 |
| 2019-20 | 70 | 47 | 0.67 |
| 2020-21 | 52 | 41 | 0.79 |
| 2021-22 | 73 | 60 | 0.82 |
| 2022-23 | 74 | 40 | 0.54 |
| 2023-24 | 74 | 63 | 0.85 |
Bear with me while I attempt to do some math. The Toronto Maple Leafs have 39 regular season games remaining on their schedule and Matthews is averaging 0.88 goals per game. Depending on whether you round up or down, that projects to 71 or 72 goals for Matthews if he plays every remaining game and his goals per game average doesn’t drop.
Keep in mind, there’s reason to believe Matthews will play every remaining game. The biggest factor is Toronto’s spot in the standings. The Leafs have comfortably finished within the top three spots in the Atlantic Division in each of the last six seasons, so they’ve elected to rest Matthews and their other stars. That won’t be the case this year as the team is dangerously close to falling into a wild card spot, so they need Matthews on the ice and they need him scoring.
Verdict
Matthews will be the NHL’s highest paid player next year and the way he’s currently playing, he’s probably still a discount. We’re all onboard No. 34 potting 70 goals.
