NHL Awards Watch: Who Are the Leading Contenders for Hart, Norris, Vezina, Calder?
As we prepare to enter the final stretch of the NHL season, not only is the playoff race becoming clearer, but the races for individual awards are as well. We’re taking a look at the favourites to win the Hart, Norris, Vezina and Calder trophies and breaking down the top nominees’ chances. Should a goalie be able to win the Hart despite not playing all 82 games? Should less emphasis put put on offensive numbers for the Norris? Does anybody have a chance at catching Igor Shesterkin for the Vezina? Should age be a determining factor for the Calder?
For a full list of props and odds for all major trophies, check out Sports Interaction’s NHL props page. While you’re at it, don’t forget to hit up NHL game odds and NHL futures betting.
Hart Trophy Odds
Auston Matthews +152
It’s going to be hard to knock Auston Matthews off the leaderboard for the Hart. The reigning Rocket Richard winner has 44 goals, six more than the next closest player in the league. He looks well on his way to a second straight goal-scoring title. Matthews has 76 points, 14 more than the next closest Leafs player. His 44 goals is 21 more than his next closest teammate. If Toronto’s play continues to decline, but they keep winning because of Matthews’ offensive contribution, he’ll have the Hart locked up.
Connor McDavid +273
Connor McDavid is going to be in the Hart conversation every single season for the next decade-plus. The Oilers superstar won the Hart last year, joining Wayne Gretzky as the only unanimous Hart winner in the 97-year history of the award. He’s held the scoring lead for most of the season, although his 81 points currently has him one point behind the leader, Jonathan Huberdeau. It will be hard to look past McDavid if he can lead the league in points despite having a down season by his standards, but the Oilers need to make the playoffs.
Igor Shesterkin +364
This is where the real debate begins. There’s no question that Shesterkin is having a remarkable season. But, to win the Hart as a goalie, he’ll need to finish with historic numbers. He has a 2.02 goals-against average and .939 save percentage, both league-highs, and he is responsible for 78 per cent of New York’s wins this season. Statistically, the Rangers are near the bottom of the NHL in shot attempts and scoring opportunities. It’s not hard to single out Shesterkin as the main factor in their winning season. Only eight goalies have ever won this award, the last being Carey Price in 2014-15, so Shesterkin has his work cut out for him.
Norris Trophy Odds
Cale Makar -359
Cale Makar is running away with the Norris based on anonymous NHL executive and media polls. Makar, who finished second in Norris voting last season, currently leads all NHL defencemen in both points (65) and goals (21). If he can sustain his 1.18 points per game average, he’ll be the highest scoring defenceman in an 82-game season since Ray Bourque’s 1.26 ppg in 1993-94. Makar is averaging over 25 minutes of ice time per game and he’s increasingly being relied upon on the penalty kill, a major positive for his Norris case. It feels inevitable that Makar will win this award as long as his play doesn’t drastically drop off.
Victor Hedman +403
Victor Hedman has been a finalist for the Norris for five consecutive season, winning in 2018. He’s averaging just over a point per game and he’s more defensively well-rounded than Makar. With players like Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point missing significant time this season, Hedman has exploded offensive, recording 14 goals and 57 points. If he can keeps those numbers up, he’ll easily surpass the career-high 17 goals he posted in 2017-18, his Norris winning season, and his previous high of 72 points in 2016-17.
Adam Fox +800
Fox is doing enough to keep himself in contention for a second straight Norris, but it will be tough to knock off Makar and Hedman again this season. He’s produced 57 points (7G, 50A) in 55 games. Almost all of the Rangers’ scoring metrics and statistics improve drastically when he is on the ice. The biggest advantage for Fox, is that while Makar and Hedman play on arguably the two best teams in the NHL, Fox is leading a roster that is much higher in the standings than their projected position based on their underlying statistics.
Vezina Trophy Odds
Igor Shesterkin -274
This is looking like Shesterkin’s to lose. Not only has he been the best goalie in the NHL, he’s garnering serious Hart consideration as mentioned above. As noted, he leads the league in both GAA and SV. And don’t have any illusions that Shesterkin is benefitting from New York’s defensive system, all you need to do is look at backup Alexandar Georgiev’s ugly 3.15 GAA and .893 SV as a comparison. The real question might be whether or not Shesterkin wins this award unanimously.
Jacob Markstrom +656
Jacob Markstrom has been a Vezina candidate all year. He even looked like the clear front-runner for the first couple of months of the season until Shesterkin’s numbers began to expand. Markstrom leads the league with eight shutouts and ranks among the Top-5 in GAA and SV. He’s a major reason why the Flames have a chance to win the Pacific Division handily, which could be a big plus in his favour with the voters.
Andrei Vasilevskiy +1100
While Shesterkin is having the best season in the NHL right now, Vasilevskiy is still considered the best goalie in the NHL for a reason. Vasilevskiy won the Vezina in 2019 and he’s coming off back-to-back Stanley Cups capped off with a Conn Smythe win last year. He also just hit the 30-win mark for the fifth straight season. If you want a bizarre stat, consider this: Vasilevskiy is the goalie of record in 21.5 per cent of Tampa Bay’s 1,022 regular season victories since they joined the league in 1992-93. There’s only one main concern regarding Vasilevskiy’s Vezina chances. If the Lighting lock up a playoff spot early, will they elect to rest their No. 1 goalie in anticipation of a third consecutive deep playoff run?
Calder Trophy Odds
Moritz Seider +203
This will be an interesting one as the rookie scoring race is very crowded right now. Defenceman Moritz Seider’s 41 points (5G, 36A) trails only three rookie forwards. For comparison on his offensive output, Makar won the Calder with a 0.88 ppg average. Seider slightly trails that number. His 0.71 ppg, however, would still be the third highest number among rookie defencemen over the last 20 years. He has more responsibility than any other rookie, playing in all situations. Seider averages 23:02 time on ice, over two minutes more than the next closest rookie.
Trevor Zegras +290
Trevor Zegras has spent the year dazzling fans with highlight reel goals. The NHL is so high on this guy, they invited him the All-Star skills competition despite not being named to the All-Star Game. Zegras is third in rookie scoring with 43 points (16G, 27A) and he has a solid chance to lead Anaheim in scoring this season. The Calder is almost a coin flip at this point between Zegras and Seider.
Lucas Raymond +311
The future is looking bright in Detroit as the third-favourite for the Calder also calls Motor City home. Raymond is second in rookie scoring with 45 points (18G, 27A) and he’s been swapping back and forth with Toronto’s Michael Bunting for the lead all year.
Bonus Option: Michael Bunting +439
Michael Bunting has exploded onto the scene this season. He currently leads the rookie scoring race with 47 points (20G, 27A). One knock against him is his age. At 26-years-old he barely qualifies as a rookie. Kirill Kaprizov, who is two years younger than Bunting, won the Calder last year and there was some criticism regarding his age. If it comes down to a tossup between Bunting and a 19 or 20-year-old player, he likely won’t win. Perhaps a bigger obstacle to his case is linemates Matthews and Mitch Marner. Is Bunting a legit top-six forward, or is he simply benefitting from having two of the best players in the world on his line every night? That’s the question voters will ask.
