Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Dallas Stars Prediction, NHL Odds

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Dec 17, 2024

NHL: Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs

The Toronto Maple Leafs have dominated Dallas in recent years, winning six straight head-to-heads against the Stars.

Toronto
33-20-2
AT
December 18, 2024, 7:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
Dallas
35-18-1-1
Puckline +1.5 -225
Moneyline +115
Over / Under o +5.5
Puckline -1.5 +180
Moneyline -135
Over / Under u +5.5

It’s a big matchup in Big-D on Wednesday night as the Toronto Maple Leafs roll into town for a dustup with the Dallas Stars. Both teams are coming off home wins, with the Leafs beating Buffalo 5-3 on Sunday and Dallas slipping by Washington 3-1 on Monday.

Toronto is a -135 favourite to win on the NHL odds, with the total set at 6.0.

Maple Leafs vs. Stars NHL Betting Odds

For two legitimate Stanley Cup contenders, this has been a bit of a lopsided head-to-head series over the last three seasons, with the Maple Leafs winning six straight matchups overall.

Toronto has particularly enjoyed two-stepping in Texas as they’ve won six straight games played in Dallas, including outscoring the Stars 8-1 in the last two Texas matchups.

When it comes to paying bettors this season, the Leafs have been the play. Toronto is 18-13 against the spread overall while Dallas is 14-16 ATS. Keep in mind, however, the Maple Leafs are just 6-7 ATS on the road and the Stars are 11-5 ATS at home.

These teams both trend toward lower scoring games as they have each played the Under a majority 17 times. Piggybacking off that trend, the total has gone Under in the Leafs’ last five games against Western Conference opponents and Dallas has finished below the number in seven of their last eight games overall.

Toronto Maple Leafs

John Tavares‘ 14th career hat trick helped Toronto battle back from a 3-1 deficit against Buffalo on Sunday. Max Domi and Nick Robertson each added a goal and an assist. It was Domi’s first goal of the season in his 23rd game. Dennis Hildeby made 24 saves against the Sabres in his third career NHL start. Hildeby will backup Joseph Woll for the foreseeable future as Anthony Stolarz has been ruled out four to six weeks with a knee injury.

Look for Mitch Marner to have a big game on Wednesday. Marner, who is tied for ninth in league scoring with 41 points (10G, 31A), has four goals and 15 assists in 14 career games against Dallas. He also has 16 multi-point games this season as he looks to cash in on a new contract. Woll (8-4-1, 2.24 goals-against average, .918 save percentage) is expected to get the start in net.

Dallas Stars

Roope Hintz had two goals, while Jason Robertson had two helpers in Dallas’ win over Washington. Lian Bichsel also chipped in with his second career NHL goal in his third career game. The result continued a run that has seen Dallas post a 13-3-0 record at American Airlines Center this season, the best home points percentage (.813) in the NHL.

Matt Duchene has been the surprise offensive leader through the first few months of the season. Duchene currently leads the team with 30 points (13G, 17A), putting him on a point-per-game pace for only the second time in his career.

Jake Oettinger will likely get the start in net against Toronto. The 25-year-old (16-7-0, 2.32 GAA, .913 SV) has the second-most wins in the NHL this year, trailing only Connor Hellebuyck‘s 19. Oettinger has allowed three goals or less in eight straight starts, posting a 2.14 GAA and .916 SV over that stretch.

NHL Prediction: Who Will Win Maple Leafs vs. Stars?

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