Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators Game 3 Prediction, NHL Playoff Odds
They say the series isn’t over until you lose at home, so Ottawa fans can relax a bit despite trailing 2-0 in against the Leafs following Tuesday’s 3-2 overtime loss. However, the odds of surviving an 0-3 series deficit are astronomical, making Thursday’s Game 3 a virtual must-win for the Sens.
Game 3 opened as a straight pick’em on the NHL odds, with the total pegged at 5.5.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators NHL Betting Odds
This series is playing out the opposite way the regular season did. While Ottawa swept the regular season series, Toronto heads to Kanata with a 2-0 series lead. The good news for the Senators is they’ve been solid at home recently, winning six of their last seven games at Canadian Tire Centre.
As you would expect, the series line has shifted heavily toward the Leafs. Toronto is a significant -1000 favourite to win the series on the NHL futures board, while Ottawa is a +650 underdog. The favoured exact series is now a Leafs sweep at +200. Toronto hasn’t been on the right end of a series sweep since they faced the Senators in the first round of the 2001 playoffs.
The Maple Leafs are getting a little more respect from oddsmakers as they are now tied with Florida for the fourth-shortest Stanley Cup odds at +750. For comparison, they began the playoffs with the 10th-shortest odds at +1200.
It’s no surprise to see Ottawa’s Cup odds trend in the opposite direction. The Senators began the playoffs at +3500 to win the Stanley Cup, but they now sit at +10,000, ahead of only New Jersey at +15,000.
Auston Matthews has recorded three assists in the first two games, but he hasn’t found the back of the net. If you still believe the former 60-goal sniper will make his mark on the series, he’s sitting at +1000 to lead the series in goals. Keep in mind, he’s torched the Sens for 25 goals in 35 career games against Ottawa.
Toronto Maple Leafs
John Tavares and Morgan Reilly each scored for the second straight game on Tuesday before Max Domi sealed the win in overtime. It’s huge for Domi, who finished the regular season with just eight goals and went on two separate goalless streaks of over 20 games. Tavares (2G, 2A), who is a +240 favourite to lead the series in goals, now shares the team lead in playoff points with Mitch Marner (1G, 3A).
Anthony Stolarz continues to look good in net, stopping 57 of 61 shots faced (.934 save percentage) over the first two games. Including Stolarz, head coach Craig Berube is expected to use the same line up for Game 3. If you’re looking for positive omens, keep in mind Toronto is 4-0 in series’ against Ottawa and they are 10-0 all-time in series’ when they win the first two games at home.
Ottawa Senators
Ottawa has been largely outplayed over the first two games of this series and they have to be kicking themselves for blowing a chance to steal Game 2 in overtime. Brady Tkachuk and Adam Gaudette had the Sens’ goals, while Linus Ullmark turned aside 18 of 21 shots faced. It’s only been two games, but it’s concerning that no Ottawa player has recorded more than one point in the series.
Another pressing concern is Ullmark’s play in net. He’s allowed nine goals over the first two games of the series while recording an .800 save percentage. The entire teams looks outmatched at this point, so Ullmark will need to be much better if the Senators have a shot at making this a series.
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