Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Game 3 Prediction, NHL Odds
The first two games of the Eastern Conference playoff series between the Lightning and Maple Leafs were both blowouts in Toronto, with the teams splitting. The series shifts to Tampa for Game 3 on Saturday night with the Leafs as short favourites on the NHL odds.
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning NHL Betting Odds
With Toronto tying the series thanks to a 7-2 victory on Thursday, the Leafs are now -161 on the series line with Tampa Bay at +142. On the series handicap, Toronto at -1.5 is +162 and Tampa Bay at +1.5 is -185. The correct score after Game 4 is 2-2 at -106, with the Leafs up 3-1 at +240 and the Lightning in the same spot at +334.
The over-under for series games is 5.5 with the over -333 and that seems all but a lock in this writer’s opinion. The under is +286. That the series finishes in six games is the +155 leader. And the favoured exact result is Toronto in seven at +320 and that’s where I lean.
Toronto was 1-2 in the 2022 playoffs in Tampa, including that crushing 3-2 third-period blown lead and eventual OT loss in Game 6 with the chance to end it. The total has gone over in nine of the past 11 meetings.
Toronto Maple Leafs
All that talk of first-round curses and chokes came rising back to the surface when Toronto was obliterated on home ice in Game 1, so a much better effort was expected in essentially a must-win Game 2, and the Leafs came out flying in the 7-2 win with a 3-0 lead after a period. John Tavares was the No. 1 star with a hat trick, while Morgan Rielly had four assists to tie the franchise record in a playoff game. Tavares had the team’s first playoff hat trick since Alexander Mogilny in Game 1 of the 2003 conference quarterfinals at Philadelphia. After two power-play goals in Game 1, the Leafs had two more in Game 2. And while the penalty kill was atrocious in the opener, it killed off all six Lightning power plays Thursday. The last team to score at least seven goals in a playoff game immediately after allowing at least seven in the previous one was Pittsburgh in the 2012 conference quarterfinals. Winger Michael Bunting served the first of his three-game suspension and blueliner Erik Gustafsson remained sidelined with an upper-body injury in Game 2. Toronto is 5-1 in its past six road games.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, a future Hall of Famer, had a handful of terrible games during a regular season that was bit below his standards, and he allowed two goals before even making a save in the Game 2 loss. The Russian doesn’t like to be taken out of games even when struggling, so he ended up allowing all seven. The team played without two key defencemen in former Norris Trophy winner Victor Hedman and Erik Cernak, both hurt in Game 1. Both are day-to-day. In a minor surprise, winger and midseason trade acquisition Tanner Jeannot returned earlier than was expected from an injury and had a hit and fighting major in 11:38 of ice time. Tampa Bay is 0-5 in its past five following a loss of three or more goals.
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