Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, NHL Odds
Toronto essentially had a chance to lock up a division title on their two-game trip to Florida, but stumbled out of the gate in a 3-1 loss to the Panthers on Tuesday. The Lightning crushed the Rangers 5-1 on Monday and now sit just two points behind the Maple Leafs for top spot in the Atlantic.
Tampa Bay is a -185 favourite to win on the NHL odds, with the total pegged at 6.0.
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning NHL Betting Odds
This has been a very consistent season series, with Toronto winning all three games, 5-2, 5-3 and 5-3. Overall, the Leafs have got the better of the Bolts in nine of the last 12 head-to-heads. As it stands, these teams won’t meet in the first round of the playoffs, but they very well could face off in Round 2.
The Lightning have been a dangerous team at home, winning 11 of their last 12 games Amalie Arena. This should prove to be a good test for Toronto, who has a solid 22-13-3 record on the road this season.
Tampa has been the better cover option at 41-36 against the spread, including 22-15 ATS at home. The Leafs are 38-39 ATS overall, including 17-21 ATS on the road.
Toronto has played the Under in five straight games, but these teams generally combine for higher scoring affairs, with the Over hitting in all three previous head-to-heads this season.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Leafs had a chance for a statement game on Tuesday, but fell flat. The game was more lopsided than the scoreboard reflects as Toronto looked thoroughly outclassed by the shorthanded Panthers. John Tavares’ 37th goal of the season was the lone bright spot. It’s Tavares’ most goals in a season since he scored 47 in his first year with the Leafs in 2018-19. You might want to circle Tavares on Wednesday. He has 15 points (10G, 5A) over his last 10 games and he’s racked up 49 points (17G, 32A) in 49 career games versus Tampa Bay.
Joseph Woll turned aside 34 of 36 shots faced against Florida, but it will be Anthony Stolarz starting the second half of Toronto’s back-to-back on Wednesday. Stolarz has had a great season, going 18-8-3 with a 2.26 goals-against average and .922 save percentage. He’ll likely be the Leafs’ Game 1 starter in the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Brayden Point (2G, 1A), Nikita Kucherov (1G, 2A) and Jake Guentzel (3A) all finished with three points against the Rangers on Monday as Tampa pulled within striking distance of Toronto in the standings. Almost unbelievably, Kucherov has more three-point games (16) than zero-point games (11) this season. The Russian sniper is in a tight race with Nathan MacKinnon for the Art Ross, with his 115 points (34G, 81A) trailing MacKinnon by one.
Andrei Vasilevskiy should get the nod in net on Wednesday. Vasilevskiy is having a resurgent season, going 37-20-3 with a 2.14 GAA and .923 SV. It’s the best GAA of his career and the second-best SV. Although Vasilveskiy won’t win the Vezina Trophy over Connor Hellebuyck, it has to be terrifying for the rest of the NHL to see “the Big Cat” back in top form.
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