Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, NHL Odds

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Oct 21, 2024

NHL: New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs

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Familiar foes go toe-to-toe on Monday night as the Toronto Maple Leafs prepare to host the Tampa Bay Lightning in an Atlantic Division tilt.

Tampa Bay
12-9-1-1
AT
October 21, 2024, 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
Toronto
16-7-2
Puckline +1.5 -200
Moneyline +120
Over / Under o +6
Matchup Odds
Puckline -1.5 +165
Moneyline -140
Over / Under u +6
Matchup Odds

Toronto and Tampa Bay have plenty of bad blood after meeting twice in the playoffs over the last three years. Both teams are looking to get right after Saturday night losses, with the Leafs falling 4-1 at home to the Rangers and the Bolts losing 5-4 in Ottawa.

Toronto is a -145 favourite to win on the NHL odds, with the total set at 6.5.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs NHL Betting Odds

After the Lightning won a seven-game series against the Leafs in 2021, Toronto picked up their revenge with a six-game series win in 2022. These teams have played incredibly tight games, with five of six matchups played between April 2023 and November 2023 being decided in overtime. The Bolts took two of three regular season clashes last year, with the Over hitting twice in that stretch.

Tampa has struggled on the road, losing six of their last seven games away from Amalie Arena. They’ve got a chance to turn that around on Monday as the Leafs haven’t exactly dominated in divisional play, losing five of their last eight games against Atlantic opponents.

The Lightning are 2-2 against the spread this season, while Toronto is 3-2 ATS. These teams trended in completely opposite ATS directions last year, with Tampa Bay ranking within the top-10 at 45-42 ATS while the Leafs were 24th at 36-52.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Nikita Kucherov has been lighting up opponents early in the season, with the Tampa sniper recording multi-point efforts in three of the Lightning’s first four games. Kucherov added a goal and an assist to his four-game point streak on Saturday, and he now leads the NHL lead with seven goals. The top line of Kucherov (nine), Brayden Point (four) and Jake Guentzel (five) are each averaging a point per game. Kucherov has also been a Leafs killer for years, averaging 1.89 points per game against Toronto since the 2021-22 season.

Andrei Vasilveskiy will get the start for Tampa Bay on Monday. After a strong start to the season, Vasilevskiy stumbled on Saturday, allowing five goals 28 shots for his first loss of the year. He’s been effective overall, however, going 3-1-0 with a 2.52 goals-against average and .901 save percentage.

Toronto Maple Leafs

You could make a case that the Leafs were goalied on Saturday as they outshot New York 35-29, including 18-11 in the third period, in the 4-1 loss. Auston Matthews scored the lone Toronto goal, for his second of the season. Mitch Marner (1G, 4A) and Max Domi (5A), who lead the Maple Leafs with five points apiece, were each held off the scoresheet. With Jopseh Woll still sidelined by a lower-body injury, Anthony Stolarz made his third straight start, allowing just two goals on 27 shots faced.

It’s expected that Stolarz will start again for Toronto on Monday. Stolarz has arguably been the most positive story for the Leafs this season, posting a 2-2-0 record with a stellar 1.79 GAA and .937 SV. Both his GAA and SV rank in the top-10 in the NHL among goalies who have played three or more games. Veteran winger Max Pacioretty will also draw back into the lineup after serving as a healthy scratch for the last two games. The 35-year-old, who has one goal in three games, took reps at practice with the second power play unit.

NHL Prediction: Who Will Win Lightning vs. Maple Leafs?

NHL Predictions
SportsInteraction
  • TB
  • +120 -140
  • TOR
Matchup NHL Odds