New York Islanders vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, NHL Odds

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Dec 21, 2024

NHL: Anaheim Ducks at Toronto Maple Leafs

It's the second half of a back-to-back for the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday as they prepare to host the free-falling New York Islanders.

NY Islanders
25-23-6-1
AT
December 21, 2024, 7:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
Toronto
33-20-2
Puckline +1.5 -225
Moneyline +110
Over / Under o +5.5
Puckline -1.5 +185
Moneyline -130
Over / Under u +5.5

Matt Murray returned to Toronto’s crease for the first time in almost two years on Friday in Buffalo, leading the Maple Leafs to a 6-3 victory. Toronto has now won three straight games as they sit tied with Florida for first in the Atlantic Division.

It’s a completely different story on Long Island. New York is dead last in the Metropolitan standings and they’ve dropped their last two games, capped by a 4-0 shutout in Carolina on Tuesday.

The Leafs are -165 favourites to win on the NHL odds, with the total set at 6.0.

Islanders vs. Maple Leafs NHL Betting Odds

The Islanders swept the season series last year, but it was closer than it looked. All three games were decided by a single goal and two went to overtime. That continues a fairly even trend that has seen the last 10 head-to-heads split evenly.

Toronto has been the better cover option this season. The Leafs are 20-13 against the spread, including 11-7 ATS at home. While New York has struggled at 14-19 ATS overall, they’ve actually managed to go 10-8 ATS on the road.

These teams also trend in different directions when it comes to totals betting. Toronto has played the Under 17 times and the Islanders have hit the Over 18 times. Five of the last six games between these teams, played in Toronto, have finished below the number.

The Leafs are playing a back-to-back, but everything still points to the Buds in this game. No team in the NHL has more home wins that Toronto’s 14 this season, while New York has lost seven of their last eight road dates.

New York Islanders

Ilya Sorokin was tagged for all four goals against Carolina on Tuesday and he was yanked after making 19 saves through two periods. Marcus Hogberg stopped all six shots he faced in relief. It was the Islanders’ fifth shutout loss this season, but the bigger concern at the moment could be the 13 goals they have given up over their last three games.

Sorokin is expected to get the start again on Saturday. The 29-year-old is mired in a rough stretch that has seen him drop three of his last four starts while posting an .865 save percentage in that span. Overall, Sorokin is 9-10-4 this year with a 2.81 goals-against average and .904 SV.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto had six different goal scorers on Friday, including a goal and an assist from each player on the third line, Max Domi, Nick Robertson and Bobby McMann. The contribution from Domi is significant as he has now scored in three straight games after starting the season goalless through 22 appearances. The bigger story, however, was the return of Matt Murray, who made 25 saves in his first start for the Leafs since March 25, 2023.

With Murray playing on Friday, Joseph Woll is expected to start on Saturday. Woll made 36 saves and was largely credited with stealing a 5-3 win in Dallas in his last start on Wednesday. The 26-year-old hasn’t given up more than three goals in an outing since October 24 and in 13 appearances this season he is 9-4-0 with a 2.30 GAA and .918 SV.

NHL Prediction: Who Will Win Islanders vs. Maple Leafs?

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