Islanders vs. Maple Leafs Odds, Prediction and Picks: Leafs Favoured After Opening-Night Loss
Tuesday’s defeat spoiled a big night for the Leafs, who unveiled a new-look lineup that featured the debuts of first overall pick Gavin McKenna, recently acquired forward Kirill Marchenko and veteran netminder Sergei Bobrovsky. The Islanders open their schedule looking to build on last season’s 43-win campaign and return to the NHL postseason for the first time in three years.
The Maple Leafs lead the way as -125 home favourites on Wednesday’s NHL odds. The Islanders lag as +105 underdogs, and the total is listed at 6.
Islanders vs. Maple Leafs NHL Betting Odds
The Islanders swept a three-game season series with the Leafs in 2025/2026 including a 3-1 victory in Toronto on March 17, and have topped the Buds in seven of 10 meetings including three of four at Scotiabank Arena. The Isles have effectively shut down Toronto shooters, surrendering just 2.42 goals per game over their past seven head-to-head dates, with the UNDER going 4-3 in totals betting in those contests. However, the Islanders face the challenge of overcoming a dismal end to last season, losing seven of their final eight games while scoring just 1.88 goals per game to dash their playoff hopes, and open their campaign as a lengthy +250 bet to make the playoffs on the NHL futures.
The Leafs face tempered expectations entering the new season after tumbling into the basement of the Atlantic Division with just 78 points last season after winning the division with 108 points in the 2024/2025. Toronto is pegged as a -115 bet to top 95.5 regular season points, but sits well off its previously familiar pace on the Stanley Cup odds as a distant +2200 bet.
New York Islanders
After falling short of a playoff berth last season, the Islanders return to action still firmly committed to their youth movement. Last season’s Calder Trophy winner Matthew Schefer enters his second NHL campaign projected to join veteran rearguard Ryan Pulock on the top pairing. Schaefer quickly established himself as NHL-ready last season, averaging 24:41 ice time while piling up 23 goals and 36 assists, and enjoyed steady success against the Leafs with four points in three appearances. Victor Eklund appears to have won an NHL job. The 2025 first-rounder played one NHL game last season after producing 10 points in nine AHL games and now projects into the Islanders’ top nine. The club is also welcoming back veteran netminder Semyon Varlamov. The 38-year-old hasn’t seen NHL action since November 2024 due to chronic knee problems but is reportedly ready enough for the Isles to demote journeyman Vitek Vanecek to the AHL at the end of preseason. However, it will likely be Ilya Sorokin’s crease on Wednesday night. The status of Mathew Barzal remains uncertain. Barzal is traveling with the team but is nursing an undisclosed injury.
Toronto Maple Leafs
After some uncertainty, Kirill Marchenko managed to get the unclear to join his new teammates in time for Tuesday’s season opener. Acquired in a blockbuster trade that sent Matthew Knies to Columbus, Marchenko joins the Buds after racking up 27 goals and 40 assists last season, and had an immediate impact, setting up one goal and tallying four shots while playing over 20 minutes, mostly alongside Auston Matthews and Jack Roslovic. However, it was evident that the newest leaf will need a little time to get acclimated to the club’s high-tempo power play. Gavin McKenna skated for 15:19 in his NHL debut, but came up pointless with just one shot while recording a -2. Sergei Bobrovosky took the loss in his first start with the Leafs, allowing three goals on just 21 shots. With the team playing on consecutive nights, expect Anthony Stolarz to get the call in the crease as he looks to rebound from an injury-plagued campaign. William Nylander picked up where he left off as the team’s leading scorer last season, scoring both goals while recording a team-high five shots.
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