Montreal Canadiens vs. Buffalo Sabres Game 5 Prediction, NHL Playoff Odds

Neither the Canadiens nor Sabres can seem to take control of their Eastern Conference semifinal matchup with the series returning to Buffalo for Game 5 on Thursday night now tied 2-2. Montreal is a +100 underdog on the NHL odds with a total of 5.5 goals.

Canadiens vs. Sabres NHL Betting Odds

With a chance for a commanding lead entering Tuesday’s Game 4, the Canadiens couldn’t capitalize on home ice in a 3-2 loss and shifted from -240 on the series line to -105. The Sabres moved from +195 to -115. That it finishes in six and seven are both -110. Buffalo in seven is now the +255 favourite, and that’s back to my choice having retaken home-ice advantage. The favourite for series leading goalscorer is Alex Newhook at -750. For most points, it’s Buffalo’s Josh Doan at +180.

When tied all-time 2-2 in a best-of-seven, the Sabres are 4-11 in the series and 4-3 when starting it at home. They are 15-20 in all Game 5s and 8-7 at home. The Canadiens are 27-19 all-time when tied 2-2 and 12-10 when starting those series away. They are 57-41 in all Game 5s and 17-21 away. Teams that take a 3-2 series lead have an all-time record of 371-94.

Meanwhile, unbeaten Carolina is sitting back just waiting for its Eastern Conference Finals opponent. The Hurricanes are -245 to win the East with the Sabres +450 and Canadiens +500. As of Wednesday, there have been 12 go-ahead goals in the final 10 minutes of regulation this postseason – tied for the sixth most at this stage in Stanley Cup playoff history. The record is 16 at this stage in 2010.

Montreal Canadiens

Projected a 4-2 Montreal win in Game 4 on home ice Tuesday for a commanding 3-1 lead, but the offence went quiet facing a new Buffalo goaltender in the 3-2 defeat. For the second straight series, the Canadiens now find themselves in a best-of-three scenario with the opposing team having home-ice advantage. Worked out last round vs. Tampa Bay, anyways, with the Canadiens taking Games 5 and 7 away.

Alex Newhook’s sixth goal of the playoffs tied Tuesday’s game 1-1 midway through the third, and Cole Caufield’s third at 19:47 of the period gave the Canadiens their first and only lead. Jakub Dobes could not hold it, allowing three goals on 22 shots.

Newhook’s six goals are the most by any Montreal player in a single postseason since Nick Suzuki had seven in 2021. Caufield’s was his 31st go-ahead goal of the season to break a tie with Joe Sakic for solo fourth-most in league history. Wayne Gretzky (1984-85) and Leon Draisaitl (2024-25) both with 32 sit in second. The under is 7-3 in Montreal’s past 10 games.

Buffalo Sabres

When a best-of-seven series is tied 2-2, the winner of Game 5 goes on to win the series 79.6 per cent of the time. Buffalo has won Game 5 in each of the past three such instances and closed out the series in six in the past two. The Sabres are back in the driver’s seat thanks to coach Lindy Ruff deciding to make the goalie change from Alex Lyon to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen for Game 4.

UPL was a bit shaky in allowing two first-period goals in the first playoff road start of his career but nothing after that and was the No. 1 star with 28 saves. Little question the Finn will get the call in Game 5. He was an excellent 12-2-2 on home ice during the season with a 2.72 GAA and .904 SV.

Buffalo still gave Montreal too many power-play chances with seven on Tuesday but allowed just one goal. Meanwhile, the Sabres were 2-for-4 with the man advantage. Zach Benson’s fourth goal of these playoffs was the winner and on the power play at 4:41 of the third. Tuesday happened to be Benson’s 21st birthday. The British Columbia native became the 13th player in NHL history, and first Sabres skater, to score a game-winning goal in the playoffs on his birthday.