Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Game 1 Prediction, Playoff Odds
And then there were two. A little more than nine months after winning the COVID Cup, the Tampa Bay Lightning will attempt to become just the ninth team in NHL history to repeat as Stanley Cup champions. Hoping to prevent the two-peat will be the Montreal Canadiens. The Habs crawled back from a 3-1 series deficit in the first-round to make one of the most unlikely Stanley Cup Final appearances in recent memory. Game 1 will go Thursday at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL.
The Bolts are -107 favourites to win on the NHL odds, with a total of 5.0.
Canadiens vs. Lightning Stanley Cup Odds
You can throw the head-to-head history between these teams out the window. The Lightning and Canadiens haven’t played each other since a 4-0 Tampa win on March 5, 2020. Montreal is finally getting some support, with 68 per cent of early Sports Interaction bettors taking the Habs for the Game 1 upset. The Under is heavily favoured, getting 81 per cent of the action. The Lightning are -238 series favourites and the Habs are +190 dogs.
On May 27, the Canadiens found themselves one shot away from their season ending, heading into overtime against the Toronto Maple Leafs and down 3-1 in the series. Since then, the Habs are 11-2 overall and 6-1 on the road. That record has a lot to do with Carey Price, who enters the series as a +136 Conn Smythe favourite. Despite not playing the Bolts in over a year, it is worth noting Montreal is just 1-9 straight up in their last 10 overall games against Tampa.
The Lightning come into Game 1 with a strong 4-1 record in their last five home. They’ve also won their last six games against Montreal at Amalie Arena. The Bolts have three of the top-4 Conn Smythe favourites, Andrei Vasilevskiy (+142), Nikita Kucherov (+287) and Brayden Point (+345).
Montreal Canadiens
It’s pretty amazing that rookie Cole Caufield was a healthy scratch for the first two games of the postseason, considering how important he has been during this playoff run. Each series, Caufield has looked better than the series before. He led the Habs with four goals in the semifinals against the Vegas Golden Knights and his five points in the series was tied for the team-lead with Nick Suzuki. Across the entire playoff run, Tyler Toffoli leads the teams with 14 points (5g, 9A). Suzuki is second with 13 points (5G, 8A).
By far the biggest part of this team is Price. When all is said and done, his postseason should go down as one of the better performances in NHL history. Price is 12-5 in the playoffs this year with a 2.02 goals-against average, .934 save percentage and one shutout. He’s the main reason why the Canadiens are 11-0 in the playoffs when scoring at least two goals. Price has also shut the door on 30 straight penalty kills. Montreal has not allowed a power play goal in an NHL-record 13 straight playoff games.
Believe it or not, Corey Perry could be the X-factor in this series. A Stanley Cup winner with the Ducks in 2007, this will be the second straight year Perry has faced Tampa in the Stanley Cup Final. His nine points (3G, 9A) ties him with Caufield for third-most on the Habs in the postseason and he’s been a valuable veteran presence for this young team. Perry had three goals against the Bolts in last year’s Cup Final. His five career playoff overtime goals trails only Maurice Richard (six) and Joe Sakic (eight) for most all-time.
Canadiens coach Dominique Ducharme is expected to return to the bench for Game 3. Ducharme missed the final four games of Montreal’s semifinal series after testing positive for COVID-19. Assistant coach Luke Richardson took over in Ducharme’s absence and went 3-1.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Point’s nine-game goal streak was broken in Game 7 of the semifinals, but he’ll still be a huge factor in this series. He is second on the Bolts with 20 points and his 14 goals leads the playoffs. Kucherov will also be counted on heavily for offence. He leads the playoffs with 27 points (5G, 22A), picking up 17 of those points on Tampa’s lethal power play. The Lightning are 20-for-53 (37.7 per cent) on the man advantage in the postseason. They’re also now 14-0 following a playoff loss, since they were swept in the first-round by the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2019, the longest streak in NHL history.
The other favourite for the Conn Smythe trophy, Vasilevskiy, is having another big postseason run. Vasilevskiy is 12-6 and his 1.99 GAA, .936 SV and four shutouts lead all goalies who have played more than one round. He’s given Tampa a chance to win every game throughout the playoffs, allowing two or fewer goals in 11 of his 18 starts.
Anthony Cirelli is a name that tends to fly under the radar on this team. Cirelli plays his best in the biggest moments and has 10 points (4G, 10A) in 18 games, including an assist on Yanni Gourde’s shorthanded game-winning goal in Game 7 against the New York Islanders.
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