2025 NHL Playoff Odds: Are the Panthers tanking to face the Maple Leafs in Round 1?

We don’t want to say the Florida Panthers are sandbagging, but for a team from a golf-friendly climate, it’s starting to look awfully suspicious.

There was nearly $50 million worth of salary watching from Florida’s press box on Sunday as the defending Stanley Cup champions lost a fifth straight game for the first time since January 2019. The Cats have been held to two or less goals in six straight games and they haven’t scored four in a night since facing the Sabres 13 games ago.

Put your tinfoil hat on (I’ve always got mine ready) because we’re about to dive deeper into this sandbagging theory.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Florida Panthers Prediction, NHL Odds, Game Preview

Tinfoil hat

You can see where this tanking theory came from. Only a week ago, Florida was firmly in the hunt for the Atlantic Division title. Now, as of Monday, the Cats are only two points away from falling into a wild-card spot, which “coincidentally” would match them up against Toronto in the first round of the playoffs.

The Panthers had eight players missing from the lineup in their 2-1 loss to Detroit on Sunday. Unbelievably, Jesse Puljujarvi (he’s still in the NHL!?) was playing on Florida’s top line. That’s what happens when Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Bennett have been ruled out of the rest of the regular season, while captain Aleksandar Barkov and Sam Reinhart have also missed time.

And why would the Panthers want to face the Leafs in Round 1?

Remember, it was only two years ago that Florida dusted the Leafs in a five-game second-round series. Add Brad Marchand, who has his own history of beating Toronto in the playoffs, to the mix and you’ve got a recipe for another Maple Leafs choke job.

I’m going to take this sandbagging theory even broader, however, because the conspiracy goes all the way to the top. Well, maybe not to commissioner Gary Bettman, but sandbagging, tanking, whatever you want to call it is a league-wide issue.

Every team holds players out of the lineup for rest, salary cap reasons, whatever. Florida is certainly not alone when it comes to questions about why certain players are in the press box and not on the ice.

Do I believe the Panthers are currently resting players who could probably suit up? Yes. Do I believe they’re doing it to face the Leafs in Round 1? No…kind of.

I’d be the first to admit if I was Florida, I would rather face Toronto than Tampa Bay in the first round. The Leafs are the 1980s Oilers when it comes to choking in the first round, they’re a dynasty. But, it’s just too tricky to lock in your preferred opponent. The Panthers could fall into the first wild-card spot, see Tampa overtake Toronto in the standings, and still face the Lightning in the first round.

It’s just too hard to sandbag your way into your preferred opponent.

What’s really happening?

Sorry to disappoint the conspiracy theorists out there, but let’s look at this logically. When it comes to Florida, I think we’re seeing a veteran team that has gone to two Stanley Cup Finals in a row and is confident against any opponent they face.

If anything, this whole Panthers tanking theory exposes Leafs fans’ fears and memories of past playoff failures. You almost have to feel bad for a fanbase that has been so tortured, they think other teams are manipulating the standings just to face them in the playoffs. Believe it or not, the GTA is not the centre of the universe.

Maybe I’ll change my opinion if Toronto smokes Florida when they meet in Sunrise on Tuesday night, but for now, my tinfoil hat is safely back in its case. The Panthers are going through a tough stretch at a bad time, but sandbagging or tanking to face the Maple Leafs isn’t what’s going on here.

Facing the king of all first-round losers in Toronto would just be a nice coincidence if Florida gets that matchup.