2023 NHL First-Round Playoff Series Previews: Odds, Predictions

Payton Matthews
Last Updated: April 17, 2023

We break down what might go down in each of the first-round playoff matchups of this year’s NHL Stanley Cup playoffs.

Eastern Conference

Eastern Conference Outright

Carolina Hurricanes -133
Florida Panthers +117

Wild Card 2 Florida vs. Atlantic 1 Boston

The Bruins are -323 on the series line and Panthers +272. Nothing short of winning the Cup for the seventh time overall and first since 2011 will suffice for Boston after setting the league’s regular-season record for wins and points – but no Presidents’ Trophy-winning team has won the Cup since Chicago in the 2012-13 season. It will be interesting to see if B’s first-year coach Jim Montgomery keeps platooning his stellar goaltender duo of Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman or settles on one – presumably Ullmark, who won the goaltending Triple Crown and will win the Vezina Trophy. The Bruins and Panthers split four regular-season meetings.

Atlantic 3 Tampa Bay vs. Atlantic 2 Toronto

The Leafs are -156 on the series line and Lightning +138. Rematch of last year’s terrific first-round series that Toronto appeared in good shape to win up 3-2 in the series and up 3-2 in Game 6 in Tampa about midway through the third period, only to lose 4-3 in OT and then lose Game 7 back at home 2-1. The Lightning would go on to win a third straight Eastern Conference title but couldn’t win a third Cup in a row, losing in six to Colorado. All those extra playoff games over the past few years seemed like they caught up to Tampa Bay at times this regular season as some cracks started to show – especially future Hall of Fame Andrei Vasilevskiy. Toronto last won a postseason series in 2004. It won the regular-season series vs. Tampa Bay 2-1.

Wild Card 1 NY Islanders vs. Metro 1 Carolina

The Hurricanes are -196 on the series line and Islanders +172. Carolina clinched the Metropolitan Division title with a 6-4 win at Florida on Thursday night, and that Panthers loss allowed New York to stay as the top Wild Card team instead of slipping to No. 2 and having to face Boston. Carolina and New York have played each other once in the postseason, in the 2019 second round when the Hurricanes swept the Islanders. The Hurricanes won three of four this regular season. Former Maple Leaf Frederik Andersen was 2-1-0 with a 2.67 goals-against average and .905 save per centage in starting three of those four in net for Carolina.

Metro 3 NY Rangers vs. Metro 2 New Jersey

The Devils are -116 on the series line and Rangers +103. New Jersey is in the playoffs for the first time since 2018 and stormed back from a 4-1 deficit at Washington on Thursday in the regular-season finale to win 5-4 in overtime on Luke Hughes’ first NHL goal in just his second game. New Jersey would have won the Metro had Carolina lost in Florida but that didn’t happen. The Devils’ 52 wins and 112 points are the most in franchise history. Perhaps no team was more aggressive around the Trade Deadline than the Rangers in adding former Hart Trophy winner Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko. New Jersey took three of the four games against New York this year, winning the season series for the first time since 2017-18.

Western Conference

Western Conference Outright

Vegas Golden Knights -1000
Dallas Stars +714

Wild Card 1 Seattle vs. Central 1 Colorado

The defending Stanley Cup champion Avalanche are -250 on the series line and the second-year Kraken +200 in their first postseason. The last team to win back-to-back Cups was Tampa Bay in 2020 & ’21, and then Colorado beat the Lightning in six in last year’s Finals. Avs star defenceman Cale Makar has been in and out of the lineup due to injury. The team believes he will be ready for Game 1. Andre Burakovsky was a big part of last year’s championship club in Colorado but left in free agency for Seattle. Burakovsky has not played since Feb. 7 against New Jersey when he injured his knee and will not return for this series. He had 13 goals and 26 assists in 49 games prior to his injury. Seattle was 2-1 vs. Colorado this season.

Central 3 Minnesota vs. Central 2 Dallas

The Stars are -140 on the series line and Wild +115. Dallas held the Central lead on the final night of the season but Colorado won it by beating Winnipeg. It’s the first playoff matchup between these clubs since 2016. Minnesota hasn’t been to Round 2 since 2015. Dallas has a clear No. 1 goaltender in Jake Oettinger. Does Wild coach Dean Evason pick between Marc-Andre Fleury and Filip Gustavsson? Or would they actually alternate starting? It probably will be Fleury’s full-time gig to open the series. The teams split their four matchups.

Wild Card 2 Winnipeg vs. Pacific 1 Vegas

The Knights are -175 on the series line and Jets +150. The only series in which Vegas won’t have home-ice advantage in these playoffs is if it faces Boston in the Stanley Cup Finals. The Knights won the Pacific Division and clinched the West’s top seed with a 3-1 win in Seattle on Thursday and got two key players, Jack Eichel and Shea Theodore, back from injury. Winnipeg and Vegas last played each other in the postseason in the 2018 Western Conference Finals, with Vegas winning in five games. The Knights swept the regular-season series 3-0 but likely Vegas starting playoff goalie Laurent Brossoit didn’t play in any. He spent 2018-21 with Winnipeg.

Pacific 3 Los Angeles vs. Pacific 2 Edmonton

The Oilers are -200 on the series line and the Kings +170. Edmonton needed a Vegas loss in Seattle on Thursday for the Oilers to win the Pacific and earn the West’s top seed, but the Golden Knights didn’t cooperate. These clubs also met in the first round last year when Edmonton had home-ice advantage and it won in seven games. Game 1 will be the first-ever postseason appearance for Oilers No. 1 goaltender Stuart Skinner. If Skinner can simply be good, the Oilers might win the Cup behind the NHL’s top offence by far (3.96) led by Hart Trophy lock and Rocket Richard Trophy winner Connor McDavid. The teams split their four regular-season series.