Might this be the game of the week? At 7-1, Minnesota has heads turning, whereas Buffalo, an impressive 6-2, will look to shake off a loss to the Jets the previous week.

The football savants have the home team Bills as -7.5 favourites on the NFL odds. The O/U is expected to be 46 points scored.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Intraconference meetings are a rare occasion, and even the last time these two teams met in 2018, they were very, very different from who they are today. WR Stefon Diggs was playing for Minnesota at the time! QB Josh Allen started for the Bills, and although he wasn’t the quarterback he is today, he helped his team claim a 27-9 victory. For what it’s worth, the Bills have won four of the past 5 encounters.

A theme of this matchup is that teams with great win-loss records are not faring well against the spread. The standings indicate the Vikings are 7-1, but betters are concerned with the unit’s 3-4-1 record ATS. Those who pick winners have had a ball with Minnesota this year. Those that take spreads have often wrung their fists.

For all the praise heaped on the Bills’ strong 6-2 record, they’re only 4-4 against the spread this season. Shocking defeats against the Dolphins and Jets didn’t help, but the sleepy 4th quarter against Green Bay resulted in a failure (they “only” won by 10). The brilliant comeback against Baltimore also meant they didn’t win by enough to cover.

Minnesota Vikings

If we get right down to it, being +7.5 underdog whilst sporting an enviable 7-1 record can be explained, at least in part, by how they left Washington last week with as 20-17 victors. A win is still a win, and in their defence, Kevin O’Connell has his troupe doing what Mike Zimmer so often failed to do: close winnable games. 7-1 surely feels nice. And yet…

After a fantastic opening drive that concluded with a Cousins-to-Jefferson score, the offence pretty much went to sleep for the rest of the afternoon. RB Dalvin Cook was a non-factor, and WR Adam Thielen continued his 2022 trend of being hot and cold. It was Justin Jefferson to the rescue, with some key grabs late in the game that set the team up for a late FG. The Commanders aren’t exactly a shining example of NFL competition either. The game against the Bills will be a terrific litmus test.

Buffalo Bills

This is arguably the worst time imaginable to play an angry Buffalo squad. And make no mistake about it, this team is angry after limping away from MetLife Stadium in Week 9 as 20-17 losers. Surprisingly, QB Josh Allen was to blame for the loss, at least in part. A couple of his throws were either terrible reads or the throws escaped him. He finished the day with 0 TDs and 2 INTs. 18 completions out of 34 pass attempts for 205 yards also was nothing to write home about, nor was his late fumble that pinned the Bills deep.

There’s no question that, like a lot of people, Buffalo was caught off guard by New York’s aggressiveness on defence. Coupled with that issue was how, as the game went along, Buffalo’s own defence began to struggle against Jets RB Michael Carter, who average 6.3 yards per carry.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Vikings vs. Bills?

VIKINGS

Away

21

BILLS

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