The Autumn Wind is a Raider. And Now, So's Carson Palmer (video)

There’s a thin line between genius and madness. Frank Doyle tries to figure out what’s going on in the Carson Palmer trade.

The Oakland Raiders traded a first and second round draft pick over the next two years to Cincinnati in exchange for Palmer, a price that could increase to two first rounders if Oakland makes the AFC Championship game this year. It was an offer that the Bengals just couldn’t refuse. As far as they’re concerned, someone just paid a Cadillac price for banged-up Ford.

The Raiders see it differently. There’s no question that the trade would never have happened if Jason Campbell hadn’t got hurt on Sunday against Cleveland. But Campbell did get hurt and the Raiders had to ask themselves: what do we do now?

Do the Raiders take it on the chin and hope for the best from Kyle Boller and Terrelle Pryor? The Raiders are 4-2, having not had a winning season for ten years. Do they just accept their fate, or do they bet the house on what Hue Jackson called “the greatest trade in football?”

They decided to bet the house. Just win, baby; worry about picking up the pieces afterwards. In NFL betting terms, it’s like trying to pull off a ten-fold parlay. A whole lotta balls have to bounce your way to collect.

If the Palmer trade goes wrong, the Raiders will suffer for years. Good drafting is the secret of success in the NFL, and that’s even more so after the latest labor agreement. If Palmer doesn’t work out, the Raiders are bound and gagged in the draft for the next two years. They don’t have a pick in the first four rounds next year. That’s a astonishing risk to take.

Hue Jackson’s career will be over – he knows Palmer from both USC and Cincinnati, and this is clearly his call. He’s bet everything on Palmer being able to turn back the years and deliver for the Raiders.

It’s a huge risk at high stakes. All the sums are against it. Nobody with an MBA from the Harvard School of Economics would have signed off on this deal.

But then, nobody was ever asked for their MBA when they went to sail the high seas under the Jolly Roger either.

These are the Oakland Raiders. This is what they’re meant to do – shock the league with audacious trades for players whom nobody else wants and go on to win Championships with them, and laugh when they’ve conquered and won.

As business the trade for Palmer is of dubious wisdom, but a gesture, as a monument to the Raiders’ fundamental nature as gamblers and outlaws, there’s a demented thirst for glory to it that takes the breath away. A great season just got even more exciting. Can’t wait ‘til Sunday.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5CTKlF45Ds[/youtube]