It was four months ago that the Houston Texans and a completely inexperienced C.J. Stroud began the bewitching odyssey that has led them back to Baltimore to play the Ravens in the playoffs. Houston won a huge Wild Card game last Saturday by barbecuing the Cleveland Browns 45-14 down in Texas. The Ravens have had two weeks to lick their wounds as they finished first overall in the AFC and thus were granted a bye during Wild Card Weekend.

Baltimore has been a behemoth all season, which explains why the NFL odds have the Ravens perched as -9 favourites.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

As alluded to, these clubs commenced their campaigns against one another back in Week 1. It ended 25-9 in favour of the Ravens, but the game itself didn’t provide a very accurate glimpse into what fans would get this year from either side. It wasn’t a great game for Houston, yet here they are in the second round of the playoffs as AFC South champions. For their part, the Ravens demolished several rivals this year by far greater scores than 25-9.

The convincing win last weekend bolstered Houston’s record this season, to 10-8 if we include the postseason. They did not cover in Week 1 despite the benefit of the doubt given to them courtesy of a 9.5 spread. Oddly, the only two other times they failed to cover the spread on the road this season were in Carolina and New York versus the Jets, two of the worst teams in the league. WRs Robert Woods (hip) and John Metchie III (foot) are listed as questionable. Noah Brown (shoulder) is on IR.

Baltimore has been more convincing with spreads this season, finishing the regular season with an enviable 11-6 record. Four times this season they were favoured by a touchdown or more and finished 1-3 in those instances. Don’t be fooled by the over’s 8-9 record. The Ravens have partaken in games in which they put up 27, 28, 38, 31, 37, 31, 34, 37, 33, and 56 points. Baltimore is fourth in points scored (28.4) and sixth in total yards gained (370.4). WR Devin Duvernay returned from IR this week. TE Mark Andrews was limited at practice.

Houston Texans

A lot of hoopla was made of C.J. Stroud becoming the youngest QB to win a playoff game. The coverage was justly deserved, but the bigger picture was an incredible performance by everyone involved in the 45-14 buzz sawing of the Cleveland Browns in the Wild Card round.

Keep in mind that the Browns entered the game with a top-five defence, specifically number one against the pass and total yards allowed per match. Houston racked up a sizeable 370 yards against that defence, 280 of which came through the air courtesy of Stroud’s brilliance. On the flip side, with the game still in the balance in the third quarter, Steven Nelson and Christian Harris picked off Joe Flacco and each returned the ball to the house. In two minutes, a 24-14 match morphed into a 41-14 blowout. WR Nico Collins caught six passes for 96 yards and a TD.

Baltimore Ravens

It’s crazy to think that the Baltimore Ravens have not won a game in three weeks. That’s because the B-side roster lost to the Steelers in Week 18 and they enjoyed a bye during Wild Card Weekend.

This is where the psychological games begin. Have Baltimore’s starters rested too long? Will they struggle to get back in the saddle after essentially having two weeks off? Astute fans may recall that in early 2020 the number one-seeded Ravens, led by an MVP-calibre Lamar Jackson, welcomed the Tennessee Titans in the Divisional Round and lost. RB Gus Edwards (810 yards) is a great compliment to the offence, and TE Isaiah Likely has been a terrific replacement during Mark Andrews’ absence. WR Zay Flowers, Jackson’s go-to target, will be a handful to deal with should he play.

On the defensive side, the Ravens have a turnover differential tied for first at +12 and produced 31 fumbles and interceptions this season. Given that Houston doesn’t give the ball away often (first in the NFL), that could be a battle to look out for.

Who Will Win Texans vs. Ravens?

TEXANS

Away

21

RAVENS

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