Texans vs. Patriots Point Spread: NFL Week 1 Odds, Prediction

Jeremy Perry | Updated Sep 03, 2018

tom brady v texans

The last time the Houston Texans visited the New England Patriots, Tom Brady added to his impressive resume of fourth-quarter comebacks in a 36-33 win.

Houston
11-5
AT
September 09, 2018, 1:00 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
Pointspread +6.5 -125
Moneyline +215
Over / Under o +49.5

55%

Betting Action

45%

Pointspread -6.5 +105
Moneyline -265
Over / Under u +49.5

55%

Betting Action

45%

In that game, Tom Brady threw for 378 yards and five touchdowns on that day, including the game-winning score to Brandin Cooks with just 23 seconds left on the clock. Can the Texans exact some revenge? Let’s take a closer look at this Week 1 matchup.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Considering season-ending injuries to key players like Deshaun Watson and J.J. Watt, it makes sense not to look too far in to the fact that Houston went 4-12 last season. After all, the Texans went 3-3 with Watson under center in his rookie season. Houston is also 5-2 against the spread in its last seven September games.

Meanwhile, New England has been equally impressive in the opening month of the season with a 6-2 ATS record in its last eight September games. The Patriots are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games versus AFC opponents. They’re also 27-10 ATS in their last 37 as a favorite.

Houston Texans

With a healthy Watson, Watt and Jadeveon Clowney in the lineup, Houston has been talked about as a potential playoff contender this season. Staying healthy will be key. So will picking up key wins early in the year including road games against the Patriots, Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts throughout the first four weeks of the season. Watson accounted for 345 total yards and two touchdowns in last year’s loss to New England. He also had two picks.

Limiting turnovers will be key as Watson resumes his career with a surgically repaired knee. With DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller out wide, he should be able to do some damage against the Patriots defense. The key for Houston will be whether its defense can slow down Brady and company enough to upset New England on the road.

New England Patriots

Brady had one of his best games of the season against the Texans a year ago. However, he won’t have one of his favorite receivers from that game in Cooks. He also won’t have Julian Edelman, who will serve a four-game suspension to open the season. Still, the 41-year-old Brady has proven he can still play at an elite level regardless of who lines up at wide receiver for New England. Plus, tight end Rob Gronkowski is healthy. So is Chris Hogan, who should get his fair share of targets in this contest. The Patriots should be able to move the football consistently, but whether or not their defense can slow down Watson is another story entirely.

Nobody in Boston has forgotten New England’s 42-27 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in its season opener a year ago. There is a good chance Bill O’Brien and his staff will have a few wrinkles in order to try to steal an upset win on the road in Week 1. The Patriots deserve to be the favorite at home in Week 1. However, New England is just 1-4 ATS in its last five Week 1 games. There is a very good chance that Houston keeps this game close and covers on the road. Beyond that, over looks like a good bet too.

Texans vs. Patriots Prediction

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