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Edgar Chaput
Texans vs. Colts Point Spread: NFL Week 18 Odds, Prediction
Just like last year, Week 18 features a mouth-watering Saturday night matchup that will determine how the AFC South unfolds. The Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, and Jacksonville Jaguars are logjammed with 9-7 records. All have a chance to not only make the playoffs but win the division. That both Houston and Indianapolis won last week helped set up this delicious decisive bout.
The NFL odds expect this one to be a barn burner, as the Texans are barely favoured at -1.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Adding spice to the matchup is that an Indy win would also sweep the season series, as the Colts emerged victorious way back in Week 2 down in Houston.
Here is how the situation stacks up for the Texans. They hold their fate in their own hands even if they fail to win the AFC South. Because of the tie-breaker earned against the Steelers, the Jaguars could win on Sunday and the Texans would still be a road Wild Card team. Of course, Houston still needs to take care of business in Indy for any of that to matter. Since the middle of October, attempts at covering the spread have produced mixed results for the Texans given their 8-8 record (they started 4-2). They are alarmingly 2-5 this season when favoured.
The Colts can also accomplish getting into the postseason and capturing the division. It goes without saying they need to win on Saturday, but if Jacksonville falls on Sunday or plays to a draw, the South goes to Indy. Should Jacksonville win their match, then even a win gets Indianapolis in, albeit as a road Wild Card team. This is the time of year when ties factor into the equation. If Houston and Indy play to a stalemate, Pittsburgh needs to lose or tie as well for the Colts to play on Wild Card Weekend. The Colts are 9-7 ATS.
Houston Texans
Many good things happened in Week 17 at home to the Tennessee Titans. First and foremost, Houston won, thus bolstering its playoff aspirations. Second, QB C.J. Stroud was back in action after missing a few weeks. Finally, it was the first relatively easy win in months as the Texans barbecued the Titans 26-3.
Stroud wasn’t his former, illustrious self, going 24-for-32 for only 213 yards, but he did throw a TD to Brevin Jordan in the second quarter. Too many promising drives concluded with field goal attempts, with Ka’imi Fairbairn sending all four of his kicks through the uprights. The story of the day was the defence. They pounded the Titans into submission, so much so that Tennessee QB Will Levis exited the game after Sheldon Rankins’ scoop and score in the second quarter as the Titans gunslinger got plastered. A convincing win all in all, but now the time comes to bring a mediocre 3-4 road record to Indy for the ultimate clash.
WR Noah Brown is listed as questionable (back).
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have already gotten a taste of what it’s like to contend against a team with everything on the line. In Week 17 they hosted the Las Vegas Raiders. The latter needed a victory to preserve any chance of earning a postseason berth.
Although it got close near the end thanks to a Vegas TD drive in the final minute, Indianapolis passed the test. Shane Steichen’s ensemble played terrific football in the first half, racing out to a 14-3 lead. Jonathan Taylor scored on the ground and a sensational pass through the air from Gardner Minshew sent Alec Pierce 58 yards to the house. The defence held its own the rest of the way, with a lot of the Raiders’ 370 yards coming off the late-game touchdown drive. E.J. Speed and Zaire Franklin were men on a mission, tallying 15 tackles combined.
It’s been an up-and-down campaign, but the Gardner Minshew Colts have a chance to make the playoffs, not something many would have envisioned a few months ago.