A the time of writing, the numbers for Brees were as follows:
270.5 yards — Over (1.75), Under (1.91)
Now, a look at a few key statistical categories that would play into this type of NFL betting.
— Brees and the Saints led the NFL in several key team statistical passing categories, and everybody knows about his aerial prowess. But what about the 270-yard plateau? Well, Brees eclipsed that in 10 of his 15 regular season outings (Brees didn’t take the field in New Orleans’ Week 17 loss to Carolina) — but his pure production in terms of passing yardage slipped a bit this postseason. He only went for 197 yards on 17 completions against Minnesota in the NFC championship, but to say Brees didn’t pass well is a misnomer: No. 9 threw three TD passes and finished with a QB rating of 106.5. So it’s not as if he’s on a cold streak or anything.
— The Saints are by fare the most multi-faceted offense in the NFL. Brees doesn’t have a receiver that caught more than 70 passes, but he has seven that caught 35 or more. It’s a big reason why the New Orleans offense is so difficult to game plan for; if opposing defenses take away Marques Colston (70 catches, 1074 yards) they still have to deal with Robert Meachem, who tied for the team lead with nine TDs. There’s even a question as to which Saints TE is the true No. 1 — Jeremy Shockey had a nice year catching 48 balls for 569 yards, but David Thomas (35 catches, 356 yards) caught more passes in the NFC championship and seems to be as sure-handed a target.
— Brees also LOVES to utilize his running backs in the passing game. He’s fantastic at throwing screens and can read defenses well enough to know when a dump off is the best play. In Reggie Bush, the Saints have a guy who is electric anytime he touches the ball; he caught 47 passes this year for 335 yards. RB Pierre Thomas is no slouch either, having racked up a ridiculous 387 yards after catches this season, a true testament to how effective he is in the screen passing game.
— The Colts have a good, but not great, secondary. They’ve played all year without the services of All-Pro safety Bob Sanders, but have done a good job finding adequate replacements in rookies Jacob Lacey and Jerraud Powers. Antoine Bethea and Kelvin Hayden continue to be the veterans of this unit, but it’s one that got lit up a bit by Mark Sanchez and the Jets last weekend. That has to be of some concern.
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