Could this season’s final four in the NFL be the greatest Sunday of conference championship football ever? It’s the first time since the NFL-AFL merger that all four teams in the conference title matchups each entered on at least a five-game winning streak. In addition, the four starting quarterbacks have combined for seven Super Bowl championships, the most since the merger. Six of those Super Bowl rings are on the AFC side as Ben Roethlisberger leads his Pittsburgh Steelers against Tom Brady‘s New England Patriots.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots
Point spread:Patriots -5.5
Over/under: 51
Date: Sunday, Jan. 22, 6:40 p.m. ET
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, Mass.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers (13-5) are on the longest winning streak in NFL, nine in a row, following their 18-16 win in Kansas City on Sunday night, a game that was moved from the afternoon because of the threat of an ice storm that never happened in K.C. Once you consider that the Steelers had to fly back to Pittsburgh late Sunday night, they will have had about 30 hours less preparation time for this game than New England, who played last Saturday.
The good news for Pittsburgh is that it largely dominated Kansas City with nearly 400 yards of offense. Le’Veon Bell set a Steelers playoff rushing record for a second straight week with 170 yards on 30 carries. The not-so-good news is that the Steelers didn’t score a touchdown, instead settling for Chris Boswell‘s NFL-record six field goals. Roethlisberger completed just 1 of 6 red-zone passes with a pick and a sack. That might be enough against a Chiefs team quarterbacked by Alex Smith, but not one led by Brady.
Would you like to know how many times a team has allowed at least two more touchdowns than it scored and STILL won a playoff game? The answer: never. Teams in that scenario were 0-245. Roethlisberger continued his concerning trend of being shaky on the road. During the regular season, his rating was 116.7 at home and 78.4 on the road. Roethlisberger is looking to reach his third Super Bowl. He won his first two trips but lost the last visit vs. Green Bay following the 2010 season.
Expect the Steelers to again use Bell as a workhorse. He has rushed for at least 118 yards in eight of his past nine outings and has 337 rushing yards through two career playoff games, 52 yards more than any other player in NFL history in his first two postseason games. Only Denver’s Terrell Davis has had more rushing yards through two games of any postseason (366 in 1998). The Patriots had the NFL’s No. 3 rushing defense during the regular season.
New England Patriots
The Patriots (15-2) are in the conference championship game for a record sixth straight season. This will be the 11th overall trip to one for Brady, breaking a tie with Gene Upshaw and George Blanda for the most all-time at any position.
New England did cover a 16-point spread last week against Houston but didn’t play very well. Brady set a league record for touchdown-to-interception ratio (28:2) during the season but was picked off twice by Houston’s very good defense and completed a season-low 47.4 percent. It was a one-score game as it went into the fourth quarter. Brady threw for 287 yards and two scores. Of course, Brady has won four Super Bowl rings, and no quarterback has won five. The Patriots have lost three of their past four AFC Championship Games — the past two defeats were in Denver.
Every playoffs, it seems the Patriots find an unlikely star, and against the Texans it was running back Dion Lewis, who rushed for a touchdown, caught a TD pass and returned a kickoff for a score. He’s the first player in the Super Bowl era to ever hit that trifecta in a playoff game. New England is 15-0 in games that Lewis has played in. He joined the team for the 2015 season but has had some injury problems.
The Patriots already got some good news this week when highly-regarded offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels withdrew his name from consideration for the open 49ers head coaching job. He was a leading candidate. There are no other openings so McDaniels should now be with the team at least through next season.
Steelers vs. Patriots Predictions
Brady is 4-0 in his career at home against the Steelers with 15 touchdown passes and no picks. He has at least two passing TDs and no INTs in each of his last six regular-season games against the Steelers, the longest streak of that kind against any opponent in NFL history.
These teams played Week 7 in Pittsburgh and the Patriots won 27-16, but Roethlisberger was sidelined with a knee injury. Backup Landry Jones threw for 281 yards with a TD and an interception. Bell rushed for 81 yards. Brady threw for 222 yards and two scores. Lewis was hurt back then and LeGarrette Blount rushed 24 times for 127 yards and two scores. Pats tight end Rob Gronkowski, now out for the season, had a TD catch and 93 yards receiving.
Pittsburgh has covered just one of its past six road playoff games, while New England is 4-1 ATS in its past five postseason home games. Take the Pats and go under the total — it will be cold in Foxboro and that usually keeps the points down.
Packers vs. Falcons Point Spread: NFC Championship Game
