Steelers vs. Bills Point Spread: NFL Wild Card Odds, Prediction
It’s Super Wild Card Weekend in the NFL as the Buffalo Bills play host to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Sunday afternoon slot. The Bills clinched the AFC East Division with a 21-14 win in Miami in the final week of the regular season. Pittsburgh barely scraped into the playoffs thanks to a 17-10 Week 18 victory against the Ravens as well as a little help from some other teams.
This is the most lopsided game of the wild card round, with the Bills sitting as massive 10-point favourites to win on the NFL odds, while the game total is set at 36.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
These teams haven’t met since Week 5 of the 2022 season. Buffalo crushed Pittsburgh 38-3 at home, covering the spread as heavy 14-point favourites. Bills quarterback Josh Allen put on a masterclass, tossing for 424 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Gabe Davis finished with a career-high 171 receiving yards and two TDs on just three receptions, while Stefon Diggs added 102 yards and a TD on eight catches.
The Steelers punched their ticket to the postseason thanks to wins against Cincinnati, Seattle and Baltimore to close out the regular season. Two of those three wins were on the road where they went 5-3 both straight up and against the spread in the regular season. Overall, Pittsburgh is 9-3 SU and ATS in their last 12 road games, including 6-2 SU and ATS as a road dog during that stretch. They have the longest Super Bowl odds (+12,500) and longest odds to win the AFC (+5000)
Buffalo finished the regular season on a five-game winning streak. They went 7-2 SU at home in 2023 while going 4-5 ATS in those games. The Bills generally perform well at home in the playoffs, going 13-2 SU and 9-5-1 ATS in their last 15 home playoff games. They enter the playoffs with the third-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl (+650) and the second-shortest odds to win the AFC (+280).
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh’s desperate win against Baltimore last week doesn’t say much when you consider the Ravens rested almost all of their starters. Mason Rudolph has taken over the starting role at quarterback, completing 18 of 20 pass attempts last week for 152 yards and a touchdown. Head coach Mike Tomlin is sticking with the former third-stringer despite Kenny Pickett’s full recovery from ankle surgery. Rudolph has won all three games he has started to close out the year, throwing for 716 total passing yards, three TDs and no interceptions.
Expect running back Najee Harris to play a big role on Sunday. Harris carried the majority of the workload load last week in Baltimore, running the ball 26 times for 112 rushing yards and a touchdown. Tomlin clearly trusts Rudolph just enough to start him over Pickett, but not enough to run the offence through him. Harris should get the ball a lot again this week considering his two highest rushing totals of the season have come in the last two weeks.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have had a wild up-and-down season, but last week’s win against the Dolphins could be the turning point on their year. Allen went 30-for-38 with 359 passing yards, two TDs and two interceptions. He also finished with a game-high 67 rushing yards. It was a familiar performance from Allen, who had some great moments, but also made costly mistakes. Allen’s 29 TD passes tied him for fifth-most in the NFL this season, while his 18 interceptions was second-most.
Buffalo’s defence could be the difference-maker in this game. The Bills ranked ninth in total team defence in the regular season, allowing an average of 307.2 total yards per game. Their passing defence ranked seventh with 196.6 yards allowed per game while their rushing defence ranked 15th, giving up 110.6 yards per game.
PIT
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