Saints vs. Falcons Point Spread: NFL Week 4 Odds, Prediction
Atlanta dropped to 1-2 with a 22-17 home loss against Kansas City last week, while the Saints sit at 2-1 following a 15-12 home loss against Philadelphia.
The Falcons opened as 1.5-point favourites to win on the NFL odds, with the total pegged at 45.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The line has shifted slightly, with Atlanta sitting at -2.5 as of Friday afternoon. There’s been even more movement on the total, which has dropped to an even 42.0, which is the exact total from both games last season. For reference, the Over/Under split in those games. The home team won and covered the spread in each matchup last year. Prior to that, the Saints won six of the last seven head-to-heads.
New Orleans is 2-1 against the spread this season and they’ve hit the Over twice. Recent trends point to the Saints covering this game as they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight as an underdog and they’ve covered five straight against East coast teams.
It hasn’t been a great start for the Falcons this year as they are 1-2 ATS while playing the Under in all three games. That continues a trend that has seen the total go Under in seven of Atlanta’s last 10 games.
New Orleans Saints
After two blowout wins to start the season, New Orleans came back down to reality in last week’s loss against the Eagles, blowing a late fourth-quarter lead. The Saints averaged 45.5 points per game in the first two weeks, but only managed 12 in Week 3. Derek Carr looked like a different quarterback, throwing for just 142 yards, one touchdown and one interception. He had 443 passing yards, five TDs and one INT in the first two weeks combined. Which version of Carr will show up in Week 4?
The big question right now is the status of running back Alvin Kamara, who missed practice this week with rib and hip injuries. Kamara is fourth in the NFL in both rushing yards (285) and attempts (61) and he is also tied for first in rushing TDs (four), so his absence would be a huge blow.
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta had a chance to win against the defending Super Bowl champions last week, but failure to convert on a late fourth-and-one cost the Falcons the game. One of the bigger issues was the injuries suffered by centre Drew Dalman and right tackle Kaleb McGary. The backups struggled and Kirk Cousins spent the rest of the game running for his life. He was sacked twice and hit 10 times after Dalman left the game. Cousins finished with 230 passing yards, one TD and one INT.
Atlanta’s injury issues aren’t limited to the offensive line. Second-year running back Bijan Robinson was limited during Thursday’s practice because of a shoulder injury. Robinson has been a workhorse this season, seeing at least 14 carries and two catches in all three games. It’s worth keeping an eye on his status in the lead up to Sunday.
NO
ATL